The missile that exploded near the village of Yasnyi, the Orenburg region of Russia, was an RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, not an UR-100N with a hypersonic warhead Avangard.
This was reported by Etienne Marcuse, an analyst at the French think tank for strategic and defense issues FRS, on the social network X.
“Today, a Russian missile failed shortly after launching from the Dombarovsky base, near the border with Kazakhstan. Although the type of missile has not been officially confirmed, it is likely to be a Sarmat, which previously destroyed its test site in Plesetsk in September 2024,” he wrote.
According to him, before the launch, a NOTAM (notice of airspace restriction) was published near the village of Yasnyi and the Kura test site in Kamchatka. The last time this operational deployment site was used for missile launches was during a test campaign of the Avangard hypersonic warhead.
Typically, intercontinental missile tests are conducted from Plesetsk in northwestern Russia or Kapustin Yar in the southwest. The Avangard test was conducted because these two test sites do not have mine missiles of this type suitable for use.
However, his analysis of the NOTAM warning shows that it was not centered on the mine previously used for Avangard tests, but on a mine that was recently renovated. Work began there in the spring of 2025 after the ice melted.
After the complete destruction of the Sarmat missile silo in Plesetsk in September 2024, the leading hypothesis for future tests was to launch the missile from the future operational deployment site.
According to the expert, it cannot be ruled out that these were Avangard tests. But, in his opinion, the urgent reconstruction of a test silo, when one already exists, is unlikely, while for Sarmat tests it makes much more sense.
The Strategic Missile Forces urgently need to certify the Sarmat, as the program is already several years behind schedule. Meanwhile, the R-36M2 missiles have been operating beyond their already extended service life since 2016.
“If this is indeed another Sarmat failure, it will have huge implications for the medium-term future of Russia’s deterrence. The replacement of the aging R-36M2 missiles, which carry a significant portion of Russia’s strategic warheads, is being pushed further into the future, while their maintenance, which was previously carried out by Ukraine until 2014, remains highly uncertain,” the expert emphasized.
As a reminder, on November 28, local residents recorded the fall and subsequent explosion of a missile near the village of Yasny, the Orenburg region of Russia.
The missile unit of the 13th Missile Division of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces (RVSN) is located in Yasnyi. This is one of 11 points on the territory of the Russian Federation from which long-range ground-launched missiles can be launched.
