Latvian Armed Forces Commander Major General Kaspars Pudāns stated that Russia has a window of opportunity for large-scale aggression against NATO countries.
He spoke about this in an interview with Deutsche Welle during the 18th annual Kyiv Security Forum.
According to his assessment, the most critical period for regional security will be 2027–2029, while the Alliance completes the deployment of its own defense capabilities. The Kremlin views this timeframe as its last chance to launch an offensive, as after 2030, Europe’s defense capabilities will significantly increase and the ‘window’ will close.
The Russian command plans to use resources mobilized during the war against Ukraine to redeploy forces to the borders of the Baltic states and Finland in order to exert direct military pressure on Western allies.
Currently, the Russian leadership has already begun construction of new military facilities in the north of the Russian Federation. Pudāns noted that the Kaliningrad region currently lacks sufficient weaponry to conduct offensive operations, but the enemy compensates for this through hybrid warfare tactics.
This involves constant sabotage, cyberattacks, and the artificial creation of migration pressure on the borders of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.
The general characterized such actions by Moscow as a sign of weakness and a loss of the element of surprise. Each new provocation forces Latvian institutions to strengthen the resilience not only of the armed forces but also of municipalities and the civilian sector.
The country operates under a concept of comprehensive national defense, where responsibility for security is shared by all state institutions and non-governmental organizations.
Latvia is actively integrating Ukraine’s experience in using autonomous systems and artificial intelligence in modern combat operations.
Pudāns emphasized that Latvia’s line of defense runs directly through Ukrainian territory, which is why the Latvian side is doing everything possible to facilitate the implementation of new technologies on the battlefield. The priority is the development of ground and aerial drones.
“We want to learn from Ukraine not only how to use equipment. We have a unique alliance—perhaps unofficial and defensive—but we fully understand that our line of defense—that of Latvia and the Baltic states—runs through Ukraine,” the general said.
The Latvian parliament has passed a law mandating defense spending at 5% of GDP, and the country has already effectively reached this target. More than half of the defense budget is allocated to the procurement of the latest equipment and the development of technological solutions.
