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Iran continues to face a massive wave of repression, with authorities arresting key allies of President Masoud Pazeshkian, threatening his support among the country’s reformist wing. A series of arrests involved at least seven members of the Reform Front, an umbrella group of reformist parties that had previously actively supported the president. Among those arrested was the movement’s leader, Azhar Mansouri, who publicly expressed dissatisfaction with the brutal actions of security forces and condemned the deaths of young people during the protests.
According to Iranian media, those detained are accused of undermining national unity and plotting against the state, claiming their statements echo "the voices of Iran’s enemies." Among the most prominent of those arrested was former MP Ali Shakuri-Rad, who had previously proposed that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei transfer some powers to President Pazakhian.
Experts note that following these repressions, the president found himself isolated: his support among reformists plummeted, and his presidency became largely symbolic. Despite this, Pazakhian continues to blame foreign conspirators for the unrest and denies responsibility for the violence. Meanwhile, Iran’s National Security Council chief, Ali Shamkhani, emphasized in an interview that the country is ready to provide a "powerful and adequate" response to any external threat and noted that negotiations on the missile program are only possible under "realistic and not excessive" conditions. The authorities continue to tighten their grip on the political situation, seeking to prevent further opposition sentiment in society.
Human rights organizations report that more than 52,000 people have been arrested since the protests began, and several thousand have died in recent months. Despite the repression, citizens continue to protest, including mass chanting of slogans against Khamenei and the regime in Tehran.
But Iran is at a crossroads. A complete overthrow of the Islamic Republic is only one of three plausible outcomes. The first scenario is regime collapse. Sustained unrest fractures the elite, leading to defections within the security services and the breakdown of centralized control. The second is partial transformation. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, now 86 years old and visibly frail, may die—or be removed—clearing the way for a strongman from the Revolutionary Guard to take power. Such a figure would adjust policy at home and abroad to buy time. The state might endure, but the regime as we now recognize it would not: Ideological authority would erode, and institutional cohesion would weaken. The third scenario is muddling through. The leadership represses the protests until they dissipate. The system survives without formal change. But it emerges even weaker than before: more paralyzed, more isolated, and more reliant on force to function at all. These outcomes are distinct, but none preserves the regime as it now exists. Collapse is possible. Severe decline is inevitable. None of this renders the Islamic Republic harmless.
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