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“When Russia annexed Ukrainian Crimea in 2014, Putin populated it with 100,000 ethnic Russians, completed the Kerch Bridge in 2018, linking Russia to Crimea, and placed it all under the protection of the Black Sea Fleet and the Russian army. Until Putin attempted to take the rest of Ukraine in 2022 this annexation seemed secure. Today Fortress Crimea is under siege and is about to fall”. British expert Robin Horsfall said this.
According to him, Ukraine has avoided costly, tactical assaults by land or sea and concentrated its early efforts on depleting Russian air defences. “Ukrainian drone and missile technology systematically destroyed Russia’s layered air defences, removing radar, missile launchers, and command centres. At the same time marine drones sank one third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet; forced them to flee Sevastopol and withdraw to Novorossiysk on the Russian mainland. Many of the ships sunk were landing craft capable of providing stores and military ordinance by sea”,expert added.
He told that this year large gaps began to appear in Crimean air defences; Ukraine achieved air superiority and began to attack Crimea’s energy infrastructure. “First a fuel and ammunition train on the Melitopol/Crimea railway which approaches through Zaporizhzhia was destroyed. The destroyed train could not be removed from the line because the approached were subject to drone reconnaissance and artillery attacks. Any recovery plant was hit as soon as it moved. The line was one of five routes for Crimean resupply. The second was a road which again entered Crimea from the north. All it took to close this road was a HIMAR strike on a single bridge. The third route by sea was already closed, it was impossible for ships to dock in Sevastopol, Kerch Bridge was sufficiently damaged to only allow vehicles of less than five tons to cross. Finally, the Crimea/Russia ferry route was closed after the ferries were sunk. Air travel is impossible and cannot, even in the best circumstances, supply sufficient resources to supply an army”, Robin Horsfall said.
“After reducing Russia’s air defences and logistical supply routes, Ukraine began to hit the energy infrastructure. Crimea has no refining facilities and must import all its energy requirements most of which rely on gasolene or diesel.
This month the Gvardeyskoye fuel depot and distribution centre for the whole of Crimea was destroyed by drones. Gvardeyskoye situated in the centre of the peninsula is the main distribution hub for domestic, business, and military requirements. Then Feodosia Oil terminal the only seaborne route of energy supply to Crimea was struck and put out of action.
The effects were immediate. Although Crimea had struggled through the past three years the effects of Ukrainian strikes were directed only at military targets. The civilian population which is predominantly imported ethnic Russians were prepared to tolerate a situation they regarded as ‘difficult.’ Now it is more than difficult and getting worse by the day.
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