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Russia may significantly reduce oil production in April amid drone attacks on refineries and export terminals, Reuters reports , citing industry sources.
They estimate that production cuts could amount to 300,000–400,000 barrels per day compared to the average level of the previous months of 2026 and up to 500,000–600,000 barrels per day compared to the end of 2025. This could be the largest drop since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The reasons cited include repeated attacks on refineries and oil ports on the Black and Baltic Seas, as well as the interruption of oil supplies to Europe via the Druzhba pipeline. Earlier, the International Energy Agency revised its forecast for Russian oil exports downward by 120,000 barrels per day by the end of the year, citing ongoing attacks on infrastructure. As Reuters notes , oil pumping through the Druzhba pipeline, which was suspended in late January, may resume in the coming days after repairs are completed. Previously, it exported approximately 150,000–200,000 barrels of oil per day to Hungary and Slovakia. The strategically important Tuapse and Novoguybyshevsk oil refineries belonging to Rosneft have completely stopped operating. As a result of a massive UAV attack carried out at night on April 16, the reservoir park and port infrastructure of the Tuapse plant were severely damaged. According to sources, as of April 21, fire extinguishing at the facility is still ongoing. A large part of the reservoir park with a capacity of 430 thousand cubic meters has been destroyed, which has frozen the plant’s work for an indefinite period. The Novoguybyshevsk refinery in the Samara region was targeted on the night of April 18. The attack disabled the plant’s most modern and critical equipment. According to an official report released on April 21, the plant was forced to completely halt the receipt of raw materials and the primary processing of oil. The four-week average for exports fell to 3.11 million barrels per day, the lowest since August last year. However, operations at the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea, as well as Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, have resumed. Consequently, the average volume of shipments over the past week rose to 3.53 million barrels per day, the highest since March 22. Indian refineries rushed to buy Russian barrels that had previously been "stuck" at sea due to sanctions. The amount of such oil in tankers has fallen by approximately 40 million barrels from its peak in mid-January, which stood at approximately 140 million barrels. At the same time, some seaborne oil exports may be reduced due to the possible resumption of pipeline deliveries to Hungary via Ukraine. This would reduce Russian seaborne crude oil exports by 150,000–200,000 barrels per day. In terms of export value, Russia’s average weekly revenue from oil shipments over the past month was estimated at $2.1 billion. The price of Urals crude in the Baltic region rose to $98.54 per barrel, while Black Sea cargoes rose to $96.86.
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