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Since the summer, Ukraine has stepped up long-range drone attacks on Russia, targeting energy infrastructure and weakening its air defenses. These strikes have already led to gasoline shortages in Russia, even forcing rationing in some regions and highlighting the growing vulnerability of the country’s infrastructure, according to the Independent.
Western analysts argue that attacks on energy infrastructure have serious, though not catastrophic, consequences. According to a recent review by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, an American think tank, Ukrainian drones have repeatedly struck 16 major Russian oil refineries, representing approximately 38% of the country’s nominal refining capacity.
However, the actual damage was said to be limited: most refineries resumed operations within a few weeks, and Russia’s oil refining volumes were mitigated by idle capacity and existing surplus fuel.
However, these deep strikes gave Kyiv the initiative at a crucial moment, the Independent notes. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine’s increased long-range strike capabilities were causing real damage, forcing the Kremlin to import fuel and restrict exports. "We believe they have lost up to 20% of their gasoline supplies—directly as a result of our strikes," he told reporters.
"Drones are evolving," a soldier with the call sign Fidel told the Associated Press. "Instead of flying 500 kilometers, they now fly 1,000… Three factors are essential for a successful operation: drones, people, and planning. We want to achieve the best possible result. For us, this is a sacred mission."
Most of Ukraine’s drone force is domestically produced. For example, the "Lyuty" drone, the workhorse of night attacks, is neither elegant nor intimidating, but its simple assembly allows it to be concealed and constantly improved, allowing it to slip through the carefully controlled airspace of the front.
The operational range of these drones marks a shift in the geography of the conflict. Their cost has also dropped, posing a further challenge for expensive air defense systems: long-range drones are now produced in Ukraine for just $55,000, the publication writes.
"We see Ukraine becoming more successful in waging war on Russian territory. For most of the war, Russia operated under the assumption that its own territory was safe. That’s no longer the case," said Adriano Bosoni, RANE’s Director of Analysis.
According to him, the strategic logic is to attrition through logistics: by forcing Russia to reroute supplies and deploy air defense assets over a wider area, Kyiv aims to undermine Moscow’s ability to sustain large-scale operations.
At the same time, Kyiv’s own strike potential allows it to independently launch drones, bypassing Western approval required for the import of long-range weapons.
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