SOFIA — Bulgaria’s former president and air force chief, Rumen Radev, is on course to win a general election on Sunday with promises to combat the all-pervasive “mafia state” that he accuses of undermining the EU’s poorest country.
Roiled by incessant political crises and weakened by fragile coalitions, the Balkan nation of 6.7 million is becoming close to ungovernable. It has had seven prime ministers since 2021 — none of them serving a full term — and this weekend’s vote will be the eighth election in five years.
It is far from clear, however, whether former MiG-29 fighter pilot Radev, a skeptic on support for Ukraine and on Bulgaria’s accession to the euro this year, will be able to break this deadlock.
According to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, his newly founded Progressive Bulgaria movement is set to win only 31 percent of the vote, meaning he will face the same struggles as his ill-fated predecessors in forging a stable governing coalition.
His political agenda is also cryptic, and Brussels has grounds to be wary. Radev has long taken Kremlin-aligned positions on Ukraine and has hinted he wanted to import Russian oil. And despite his pledge to crack down on the country’s ubiquitous top-level graft, his critics point out that Progressive Bulgaria is attracting support from parties with their own checkered histories of nationalism and corruption.
As centrist opposition leader Assen Vassilev, of the We Continue the Change party, asked reporters earlier this year: “Does he seek a strong Bulgaria in a strong Europe? Or a Bulgaria following the Orbán model, acting as a Trojan horse within the EU and blocking integration?”
From president to prime minister?
Radev has drawn on his daredevil flying skills to build his political brand.
Before Radev gunned for the presidency in an election in 2016, the air force’s PR department heavily promoted his loop-the-loops in a high-profile air show. Similarly, in this year’s general election a campaign video showed him in the cockpit of his MiG-29, narrating a vertical takeoff. “Incredible power,” he gasps against the G-forces.
After assuming the presidency in 2017 Radev quickly made up for his lack of political experience, capitalizing on his military background to cultivate the persona of a fearless patriot uncorrupted by party politics. As a former general, he also cites his military education in his assessments of why he thinks Ukraine should sue for peace with Russia.
His big breakthrough came in 2020 amid a major political storm over the influence of oligarchs on state prosecutors. It was a fight that sparked major street protests over the summer, and helped Radev establish himself as the country’s most popular politician.
Prosecutors raided the presidential offices and briefly detained two of Radev’s staff, only enhancing his credibility as a fighter against state capture. As the public anger soared he went out to greet a crowd one summer evening, raising a clenched fist, denouncing corruption and calling for “mobsters” to exit the executive.
That battle against corruption is front and center in this year’s campaign, and Radev’s defining election pledge has been to “topple the oligarchy.”
“The oligarchy is deeply entrenched in the country’s social and economic life. It’s a pyramid [scheme] that systematically drains society while securing its impunity through control of institutions, parties, elections, media and business,” he said last month.
“Unless this model is dismantled, any form of governance would be doomed to failure,” he told supporters in Sofia.
That fight will pit him against powerful foes. His main political adversaries are Bulgaria’s two leading political heavyweights — former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov and Delyan Peevski, leader of the DPS-New Beginning party. Opposition politicians accuse both of being key enablers of the country’s oligarchic deep state — a charge they reject.
Eclectic supporters
Despite years of speculation that he would go for the prime minister’s job, Radev only finally revealed his Progressive Bulgaria project in March.
While Radev doesn’t formally lead Progressive Bulgaria, he is unmistakably its face. The movement features a motley assembly of politicians close to him or some who changed their allegiance, and also includes military figures, newcomers and former sports personalities. Only six women lead party lists across the country’s 31 electoral districts.
“His face is everywhere, which is probably what matters, because nobody else is recognizable,” said Dimitar Bechev, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe.
Progressive Bulgaria has attracted an eclectic range of backers. Polls show it has drawn some supporters of the pro-Russian far-right Revival party. Ahmed Dogan, the founder of the ethnic Turkish DSP party and now a major rival of Peevski, has also expressed his support. And VMRO, a smaller nationalist grouping, has formally endorsed Radev’s party.
Yet the party’s program offers few specifics, and Radev has not positioned Progressive Bulgaria clearly on the political spectrum. His economic policies, for example, carry the marks of both left- and right-wing platforms.
In past weeks Radev has been on the campaign trail across the country. His social media team has posted images and videos of packed halls and applauding spectators. But he has given only two interviews during the campaign so far — one for the nation’s public broadcaster, and the other for a popular YouTube channel with a record of spreading disinformation and pro-Russian talking points. His press team declined an interview with POLITICO.
Bechev reads the silence strategically. “He keeps his cards close to his chest,” he said.
Boriana Dimitrova, managing partner at Sofia-based polling agency Alpha Research, added: “His strategy is to keep his statements as vague and unclear as possible to allow voters to hear whatever they would like to hear from him … He is casting a wide political net, trying to appeal to voters from both left and right on the political spectrum. He is trying to play ball with everyone.”
That approach could deliver votes on Sunday, but she warned it risked backfiring the moment Radev takes power. She called him “a paradoxical figure” — more polarizing than unifying as president and, as a prospective prime minister, “an omnivore, with little clarity about his principles or the solutions he offers.”
While Radev cut down on his pro-Russian rhetoric during the campaign, his views still popped up on several occasions, including on Bulgaria’s need for cheap Russian oil.
When the current caretaker government decided in late March to sign a 10-year cooperation agreement with Ukraine, Radev attacked it harshly, accusing the cabinet of “dragging us into war.”
Complex coalitions
Dimitrova noted Radev had anticipated an “electoral tsunami” and his allies had spoken of winning at least 120 out of 240 parliamentary seats. The polls, however, now suggest a more modest result. “He is failing to achieve the support that he and the people around him expected,” she said.
The harder question is what happens if he fails to achieve a majority.
The reformist coalition of We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria seems like a natural partner on the anti-corruption front. However, they have clashed with Radev’s camp in the past over the war in Ukraine, and Radev’s Russia-friendly rhetoric might prove unpalatable for their supporters.
A sharp pivot toward Moscow would also fracture any coalition and antagonize Bulgaria’s EU and NATO partners. “It’s not a winning move,” Bechev said.
If a coalition with pro-Western parties does materialize, Bechev expected Radev might find it easier to stay quiet on Ukraine, and let his coalition allies do the talking on Russia policy.
Dimitrova raised another possibility: “He might try to build a minority government, trying to forge different alliances on different topics. However, that requires considerable political acumen,” she said. “We are about to see if he has it.”
That raises the deeper question of whether he has the skills the job demands. “Being president is a very different job description than being leader of the largest party and engaging in forging together an agreement with other parties,” Bechev said. “We haven’t seen him in action. We don’t know how he acts, what he’s capable of, what his limits are.”
If Radev fails to form a government, the cost will be steep. Political analysts warn his messiah halo might fade fast.
“The prospect of another snap election will likely weaken Radev’s position,” said Dimitrova.
Bechev agreed, warning that Radev “won’t have the aura of the outsider anymore.”
Bulgaria has seen this pattern before: The savior arrives, fails to govern, and soon loses the newcomer advantage that made them seem unstoppable. Radev knows better than most what happens when a plane stalls at altitude.
