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An analysis of the latest data and reports from US intelligence shows that, in addition to the Middle East, five high-profile and dangerous conflicts could break out in the next five years, according to an article in Politico:
India and Pakistan are probably closer to exchanging nuclear weapons than any other two countries on the planet. Pakistan has 170 nuclear weapons. India has 180. The domestic politics of both sides are pushing them toward escalation;
China-Taiwan. This will show who will lead the world order in the 21st century: the US or China? The US has long said it will support Taiwan, but many doubt that Trump is as committed to this promise;
Russia and the Baltic States. Putin’s goal is to reclaim territories that, in his opinion, should historically be part of Russia, as well as to check NATO and Europe;
India-China. India has far more population centers within range of Chinese munitions than China has on its side. The region is ripe for misunderstandings and escalation — and tensions are so volatile today that both Chinese and Indian troops are banned from carrying weapons along the border. The two countries lack any conventional deterrence mechanisms, treaties, or channels of communication;
The Korean Peninsula. North Korea is a slowly dying country, torn apart by hunger and paralyzed by government brutality. Kim Jong-un will not become the next Saddam Hussein or Muammar Gaddafi. His trump card is nuclear weapons. If Kim senses weakness or threat, anything is possible.
This year, two of the world’s most talked-about potential conflicts have already become reality: missiles flew over the India-Pakistan border in May , and then Israel went to war with Iran over its nuclear program in June. Although the Indo-Pakistan conflict quickly ended, the strategic implications of Israel’s immediate tactical success in Iran remain in question.
This summer marks the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, and while such a massive catastrophe may seem unlikely, the reality is that the world is often closer to a major regional or even global conflict than it might seem. The development of new disruptive technologies and asymmetric advantages, such as autonomous weapons and drones, are likely to make the coming years more unstable in ways not previously considered.
An analysis of recent U.S. intelligence testimony and reports, as well as interviews with half a dozen geopolitical experts, makes clear that, beyond the Middle East, there are five high-profile, high-risk conflicts that could conceivably unfold over the next five years. Each could have profound and serious consequences for the United States — militarily, economically, or geopolitically. These are high-tension regions where a military intervention like Russia’s incursion into Ukraine in 2021, escalating tensions, or even just a 24-hour period of miscommunication, mistakes, military accidents, or miscalculations could lead to major confrontations, loss of life, and global disruptions.
War is unpredictable and usually harder to win than it looks, but this has rarely been a deterrent. On the contrary, war has been one of the few constant and invincible human activities since the dawn of recorded history, even though it has often proved disastrous for aggressors and defenders alike.
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