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The year 2025 has not brought Russian leader Vladimir Putin any particular successes in the war, and the situation for him is unlikely to improve in the future, writes The Wall Street Journal.
Last year, Russian troops captured less than 1% of Ukraine’s territory. At this rate, it will take Russia another year to reach the Donetsk border and establish control over the territory Putin demands from Ukraine as a precondition for peace.
The swift capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and his wife by the US military once again highlighted Russia’s military weakness. As Russian political scientist Abbas Gallyamov noted, "The Americans’ brilliant success, using Venezuela as an example to demonstrate what a ‘special military operation’ really looks like, further demoralizes Russians—both ordinary people and the elite." The fact that Maduro was a crucial ally of the Kremlin exacerbated the situation. Another unpleasant incident for Putin was the US seizure of an oil tanker escorted by the Russian navy.
Moreover, all those who previously loyally supported Putin’s war have reason to be dissatisfied, the WSJ notes. Russia’s total military spending in 2025 is estimated at 15.5 trillion rubles—in nominal terms, five times more than in 2021. This does not include expenses for maintaining Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories or payments to soldiers and their families. Meanwhile, in November 2025, oil and gas revenues fell by 34% compared to the previous year. To cover the record 2025 budget deficit and finance military operations, Russia’s value-added tax rate on goods and services increased from 20% to 22% on January 1.
"This is raising the cost of living for ordinary Russians, who are increasingly seeking an end to the conflict in Ukraine. A Levada Center poll shows that public opinion in Russia on the war has shifted significantly. In December 2024, 37% believed the war should continue, while 54% wanted peace talks; a year later, only 25% favored continuing the conflict, while 67% wanted peace talks." High interest rates, aimed at combating war-induced inflation, have suppressed investment. Further frustrating for Putin’s elite is the inability to access their billions in private assets, locked up in European banks.
And while Putin is capable of suppressing the discontent of ordinary Russians through powerful state repressive measures, he cannot continue this conflict without the support of his Kremlin entourage, the article notes:
"This support could be undermined if the US provides Ukraine with the weapons it needs to counter Russian drones and missiles. Therefore, war-weary colleagues—and close oligarchs—may well pressure Putin to come to the negotiating table with a peace plan that Ukraine could accept." Trump previously stated that both Putin and Zelenskyy now want to reach a peace agreement. However, he declined to provide any timeframe for a possible end to the war, departing from his previous practice of publicly announcing deadlines for achieving peace.
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