Romania is undergoing a fresh bout of political turmoil that could have far-reaching consequences for the EU’s sixth-most populous country.
Almost one year on from a divisive presidential election, defeated far-right candidate George Simion is now surging ahead in the polls and causing mayhem inside Romania’s parliament.
He is pushing a vote of no confidence in the government next week, which could topple Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan and trigger a period of instability that would threaten the country’s already precarious economic outlook.
The country faces a key August deadline to complete reforms that would unlock around €11 billion in EU funding, and analysts worry that the government’s struggle to control public finances could trigger a credit rating downgrade.
But the brutal austerity measures enacted over the past year to reduce Romania’s budget deficit have hit the popularity of the center-left and liberal politicians pushing these reforms through. And Simion’s nationalists now see an opportunity to cash in.
Below, POLITICO walks you through what’s happening in Bucharest, what might happen next and why it matters for Europe.
What’s going on?
In a nutshell, the crisis in Romania comes down to a stand-off between PM Bolojan, who leads the National Liberal Party, and his coalition partners in the Social Democratic Party (PSD).
The PSD pulled out of Bolojan’s coalition last week and called for him to be replaced. The party doesn’t like the prime minister’s severe austerity policies, such as tax hikes and public sector wage freezes — which impacted the areas it represents — or his rigid political style.
The PSD is now backing a no-confidence motion in the government alongside Simion’s far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) party.
Bolojan has angrily accused PSD leader Sorin Grindeanu of lying about whether he would be prepared to work with Simion. But the PSD insists it is not forming any sort of meaningful alliance with the AUR beyond the upcoming vote against Bolojan’s government.
“I think this is very dangerous for democracy,” said Cristian Pîrvulescu from the National University of Political Studies and Public Administration in Bucharest. The joint effort to topple the prime minister could “legitimize and normalize the far right,” he said.
The vote on the motion to “censure” the government is expected to be held on May 5.
What’s at stake?
Instability in Romania carries significant consequences beyond the country’s borders. With a resident population of around 19 million Romania is an important EU player, strategically located on the bloc’s eastern edge bordering Ukraine.
It’s also in the process of building NATO’s biggest military base on the Black Sea coast and plays a key role in the region’s security, housing the U.S. ballistic missile defense system at Deveselu in the country’s south.
Romania has so far proven vital as a logistical hub to help Ukraine in its war against Russia. But Simion’s party is currently polling at around 35 percent, and if he ever ended up in power he could cut off aid to Ukraine.
Simion is also opposed to the power Brussels wields over public spending, and would resist common EU migration policy.
There are implications for EU politics here too, as the PSD’s decision to work with the AUR has already ruffled feathers in the European Parliament.
Reassuring the markets
A far more immediate concern within Romania is the verdict of the markets. Austerity had been seen as crucial for reassuring investors and meeting the demands of Brussels; in 2024 the country had the highest deficit in the EU at 9 percent of GDP.
“We can’t afford a downgrade,” said Radu Magdin, a political analyst. “For sure any kind of political mess has to be solved in a relatively orderly manner by June 15 because the rating agencies will be looking into the Romanian situation in July, August and September.” A quick resolution to the crisis is therefore crucial, he said.
Another concern is the possible impact on Romanian democracy. The PSD’s decision to play along with the AUR in trying to oust Bolojan could backfire, suggested Pîrvulescu, by encouraging more voters to think Simion’s party is a viable option in the next election.
What happens next?
Between now and the vote of no confidence expected to take place next week, all sides will be working hard to win the 233 votes they need for a majority. On paper, Simion’s AUR and the PSD are close to reaching that number of votes if all their MPs are in line, but there’s still a chance that Bolojan and his supporters will prevail.
If Bolojan loses the vote he will be out as prime minister. Independent centrist President Nicușor Dan will then begin consultations with party leaders to form a new coalition government, with a new prime minister.
In that case, one possibility is that the coalition between Bolojan’s liberals and the social democrats carries on but with a new, independent technocratic prime minister — an option some analysts and commentators view as likely.
The PSD has already said it is open to continuing the coalition with a different prime minister in charge. But the bad blood from this crisis — the two main ruling parties have traded insults — could make it difficult to patch things up.
The other option is that Bolojan wins the vote. In that case, either the PSD would have to eat humble pie or, more likely, Bolojan would continue to lead a minority government, forcing the PSD into opposition alongside Simion’s nationalists. Some suspect this was Bolojan’s plan all along, according to Pîrvulescu.
Will Simion gain power?
Simion was cautious about the possibility of taking the role of prime minister when POLITICO asked him last week, but he didn’t rule it out. On paper, however, this appears impossible at the moment, not least because Dan has said he won’t consent to appointing anti-European parties (read AUR) to the government.
Simion’s best bet remains to win power in future elections — either in the parliamentary contest set for 2028 or in the presidential vote expected in 2030. An early snap election is widely seen as unlikely.
According to Pîrvulescu, there is not “any chance” Simion will become prime minister in the short term. Magdin took a similar view, stating Simion “isn’t interested” in the job “right now” and has “no chance” of becoming prime minister.
How did we get here?
It was only 10 months ago that Bolojan took office and set the government to work on its key task: dragging Romania’s budget deficit back to acceptable levels.
That meant painful austerity measures — taxing pensions, raising VAT and freezing pay for public sector workers, which sparked protests from teachers and others. And while the deficit has started to fall, inflation remains high, and the political cost of the deeply unpopular cuts has been significant.
Some reports have also suggested that rising tensions between the president and the prime minister haven’t helped resolve the crisis, but Dan’s allies have denied this.
“It is not a grand friendship between them,” said Pîrvulescu. “The president wants a stable government and stable institutions, and he is concerned that this is a problem with the style of Ilie Bolojan — it’s a very inflexible political style. Politics is the art of flexibility. He is not flexible.”
Magdin agreed. “One of the problems that Mr. Bolojan has had is his famous stubbornness,” he said. “Stubbornness can sometimes be very good and you call that tenacity … but when people have the feeling that you’re simply rigid, you antagonize a lot of people. I believe both in the assessment of the president and other key political leaders in Romania, the prime minister has been too stubborn for his own good.”
What’s up with Romanian politics?
Many Romanians have grown weary after years of corruption scandals, as well as the crisis over alleged Russian interference in the 2024 presidential election that led to the entire vote being canceled. The far-right ultranationalist who was on track to win that contest, Călin Georgescu, is currently facing a trial, accused of plotting a coup.
Yet Georgescu still has a sizable following. Many Romanians are deeply skeptical of democracy and of the authorities running their country’s institutions, and believe the far-right leader was the victim of a conspiracy. Georgescu also remains on good terms with Simion, who last year suggested he wanted to make him prime minister.
There is also a structural wrinkle in how the country’s constitution works, noted Pîrvulescu. The prime minister in Romania has substantial powers but has been politically constrained by the need to work in coalition with other parties over the last 20 years — something that has led to a sense of one crisis rolling into another.
