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Imminent collapse: Ukraine for the first time turned Russia from a fuel exporter into an importer

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Russia, which for years boasted its status as an "energy superpower," is taking a desperate step: the Eurasian Economic Commission (EAEU) has announced a temporary zero-sum import duty on gasoline, diesel fuel, marine fuel, and jet fuel. The measure will be in effect until June 30, 2026. In other words, Russia is preparing to buy fuel abroad and import it into the country without tax surcharges, because its own capacity is insufficient.
Officially, the discussion revolves around "domestic market balance" and "seasonal demand growth." In reality, the decision reflects a systemic crisis in the Russian fuel industry. Production is declining due to Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries, exports are limited, and the domestic market is in turmoil. Now Russia is preparing to buy fuel abroad, effectively transforming from an exporter to an importer—a blow to both its image and the economy.
The main source of revenue for the Russian budget, oil and gas revenues, has fallen to a five-year low. According to the Russian Ministry of Finance, they will decline by 22% in 2025, reaching 8.65 trillion rubles. This is 2.5 trillion rubles less than the previous year, and the amount is comparable to two-thirds of the Kremlin’s annual military spending. The situation is exacerbated not only by low Urals and gas prices, but also by constant drone attacks on refineries. These attacks disrupt refining, increase risks, and, consequently, drive down the price of Russian oil.

To support refineries, Moscow is increasing subsidies: from 2.44 trillion rubles in 2025 to 3.37 trillion by 2028. But the more such injections, the faster the budget deficit grows. At the same time, revenues fall and inflation rises. It’s a vicious cycle: money is spent on patching holes, while new holes only multiply.
Systematic drone strikes, export restrictions, and forced fuel imports are eating into the Kremlin’s war-financing budget. Every new oil refinery attack means not only disruptions to gas stations but also billions of rubles in budget losses. Russia can no longer maintain its previous level of military spending while simultaneously protecting its fuel market. Its economic cushion is dwindling, and its dependence on external supplies and creditors is growing. For the gas station, this means transforming from an exporting power into a country forced to buy fuel from abroad. Even the publications closest to the Kremlin are forced to report that the situation in the country is deteriorating catastrophically.
For many Russians, who live in an artificial information bubble created by Kremlin-controlled media, such news comes as a real revelation. Nezavisimaya Gazeta openly reports on the ongoing fuel crisis, which even the gasoline export ban hasn’t stopped. The authors note that Rosstat is recording gasoline prices rising three times faster than inflation, and wholesale exchange rates are also soaring. They also acknowledge that even seven months after the restrictions were introduced, the fuel shortage is only growing.
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