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Since the beginning of its full-scale military invasion in Ukraine, Russian authorities have pursued a strategy that sought to preserve a sense of normalcy in Russian society and convince the population that the invasion would not have any repercussions on safety in the country. However, just as the Russian-Chechen wars ultimately resulted in militant attacks on Moscow and other cities in the early 2000s, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has spilled over deep into Russian territory, undermining the government’s promises.
Russian authorities consistently attempted to domestically frame the invasion as a ‘special military operation’ – short and victorious. But over 3 years into the invasion, its consequences for Russia’s domestic security situation prove to be multi-faceted and far-reaching. The spillover of the conflict has seen thousands of civilian casualties in Russia’s border regions due to cross-border shelling, incursions by armed groups made up of Russian anti-government fighters, and a mutiny attempt by the head of Russian state-sponsored private military company, the Wagner Group. There have also been other, less visible, effects that are likely to leave a long-lasting impact on security in Russia, including the mobilization of pro-Ukrainian partisan groups, easier access to lethal weapons, and the intensification of state violence against anti-war voices. Official statistics from the Russian Interior Ministry confirm the worst fears: Putin’s army, which has partially returned home, has brought the war with it. Violence, terrorist attacks, and serious crimes are breaking historical records, turning the country into a zone of constant threat. The military hysteria of Russian propagandists, the instilled atmosphere of hatred and snitching are also poisoning the minds of Russians. The Moscow Times reported recently that according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, 170.8 thousand serious and especially serious crimes were registered in the country in the first quarter of 2025 alone. This is the maximum for the entire period since the start of the full-scale war with Ukraine. The growth compared to last year was more than 13%. Large cities and depressed regions are seeing sharp spikes in violence, and society is increasingly becoming a victim of its own "war heroes".
Experts have long warned that the mass release of criminals from the front, whom the Kremlin used as "cannon fodder," would boomerang. Now these former convicts and mentally traumatized soldiers are returning home not with victory, but with weapons, post-traumatic stress disorder and a sense of impunity. For many, the war is not over – it has simply moved from the trenches to the streets of Russian cities. In parallel with the growth of domestic and organized crime, Russia is breaking records for the number of terrorist attacks. In 2024, the Ministry of Internal Affairs recorded 1,191 terrorist crimes – an absolute maximum since the beginning of records. And already in January – February 2025, 451 terrorist attacks were committed – almost 10 times more than a year ago.
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