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The key element of the Russian army’s strategy in Ukraine is currently the capture of Zaporizhzhia. Naturally, it’s beyond their capabilities, because if they’ve been fighting for over 16 months for Pokrovsk, where the population was 20 times smaller than Zaporizhzhia. The most intense fighting continues along the Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, and Huliaipole axes. Despite mounting pressure, Ukrainian forces have not only contained Russian assaults but have also conducted localized counterattacks in the south, particularly near Huliaipole and Oleksandrivka. Reviewing the first two months of the year, Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military analyst with the Information Resistance group, assesses that Russian forces have fallen short of their intended winter objectives — though he cautions against premature or overly optimistic conclusions. “I will start with a general assessment of the frontline situation. At this stage, Russian occupation forces have effectively failed to achieve the goals of their winter offensive. But there is an important caveat. Any honest evaluation must consider the battles for Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad separately.” According to Kovalenko, Ukrainian defensive adjustments in that sector reflect operational logic rather than collapse. Partial control of Pokrovsk and incremental advances in Myrnohrad constitute the only tangible gains Russia can claim from its winter effort, the expert says. In the Pokrovsk sector, conditions remain challenging but, according to Ukrainian analysts, operationally managed. Kovalenko describes the gradual Ukrainian pullback from dense urban areas of Pokrovsk — and potentially Myrnohrad — as a calculated adjustment rather than a collapse. The defensive potential of sustained urban fighting in these areas, he argues, has largely been exhausted.
“Our priority is not to cling to concrete,” Kovalenko explains, “but to construct a defensible perimeter on the outskirts and shape the battlefield in a way that maximally constrains the enemy’s options.” In practical terms, this approach aims to deny Russia the ability to regenerate offensive momentum along the Dobropillia axis, prevent the opening of a new Druzhkivka-oriented line of advance, and complicate any effort to redeploy forces — particularly elements of Russia’s 8th Combined Arms Army — toward renewed operations against Kostiantynivka. A serviceman of Ukraine’s 41st Separate Mechanized Brigade, Kyrylo Sazonov, offers a complementary assessment, arguing that Moscow’s objective was to “close out” the Pokrovsk sector ahead of spring in order to redeploy forces toward the Kramatorsk agglomeration. “It is evident that the enemy intended to resolve the Pokrovsk issue and reach the administrative boundaries of Donetsk Oblast in this sector before launching a large-scale spring campaign,” Sazonov says. “They even officially announced the capture of Myrnohrad last week — and then quietly removed the report. The explanation given was an outdated photograph of Russian Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov. In reality, our airborne units continue to hold a limited bridgehead on the outskirts of Myrnohrad, from which they conduct drone strikes and raid operations.” At the same time, Sazonov acknowledges that the situation remains difficult, with fighting already extending into Rodynske. The enemy’s operational objective is to take control of the road that connects Bakhmut through Kostiantynivka to Pokrovsk, and then on to Pavlohrad. Without capturing this road, any discussion of an offensive toward Slovyansk and Kramatorsk is pointless. That’s why the enemy initially attempted to actively attack and defeat our forces directly in Slovyansk, Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and Kostiantynivka, focusing on Pokrovsk while maintaining pressure on Kostiantynivka. Talking about an offensive on Kramatorsk and Slovyansk is pointless if the enemy doesn’t control this road.
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