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Iran fears the collapse of the ayatollah regime due to US targeted strikes

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Despite reports of US-Iranian talks in Oman, the US military continues to actively build up its air bridge to the Middle East. Alexey Zheleznov’s Channel writes about this . At least seven C-17 transport aircraft were spotted en route to the region, departing from various bases. A tanker aircraft was also spotted in the Persian Gulf. As previously reported, there is a growing understanding in Israel that a military conflict between the US and Iran may become inevitable, despite the start of negotiations between the parties. According to the source, several scenarios are possible: an agreement, a direct confrontation without an agreement, or an intermediate option in which negotiations begin but ultimately escalate into conflict. The United States is prepared to simultaneously carry out strikes and ensure reliable protection of its facilities in the region, as well as those of its allies.
Cursor previously reported that, despite reports of possible US-Iranian talks as early as Friday, Tehran is escalating its harsh rhetoric, publicly mocking Washington amid diplomatic contacts. The statement claimed that the aircraft carrier Lincoln was retreating from Iranian shores, implying that Washington had "gotten the message" from Iran. The language is downright dismissive and provocative. İn this case Tehran seriously fears that even a single US strike on Iran would incite a new uprising and lead to the collapse of the regime. Following the bloody suppression of the January protests, Iranians’ fear of the government has given way to anger, and now any external pressure could completely destroy the ayatollahs’ control over the country. Reuters reported.According to the agency’s sources, during closed meetings, advisers reported to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei that, following the mass shootings of demonstrators in January 2026, the wall of fear of the security forces has collapsed. Public anger has reached a critical point at which external pressure will trigger a new uprising. "An attack combined with angry demonstrations could lead to a systemic collapse. This is the primary concern of senior officials," Reuters quotes an Iranian official as saying. The Financial Times reported that US’s immediate agreement to move the negotiating venue from Turkey to Oman at Iran’s initiative may look like a tactical concession, but upon closer examination it could turn out to be part of a more complex and risky strategy. Experts point out that if the US goal is not to reach an agreement, but to create a pretext for military action, then it would be logical for them to remove any formal barriers. By accepting Iran’s proposal for a meeting location, the White House deprives Tehran of the opportunity to accuse Washington of disrupting the talks on procedural grounds. This subsequently gives the US the opportunity to declare that they have accepted all the conditions, including the choice of site, but the Iranian side still rejected the demands put forward. Unlike Turkey, which actively participates in regional politics and has its own ambitions, Oman traditionally acts as a "black box" – a platform for extremely closed and confidential negotiations. For the US, moving the dialogue there could be advantageous, as it would minimize leaks to the press and pressure from NATO allies, while maintaining complete control over the information environment. The speed of the decision may be due to the tight timeframe. With the USS George Bush being relocated and the "last chance" being declared, Washington is not interested in protracted disputes over logistics. It is crucial for the US to conclude this round as quickly as possible—either to force Iran to make concessions under pressure, or to register the "collapse of diplomacy" and resort to force.

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