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A new expert analysis has revealed a significant shift in the balance of power within Iran, with the real center of decision-making increasingly shifting from the office of the Supreme Leader to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or IRGC. A Wikistrat study of 11 leading experts on Iranian affairs found that the traditional vertical power structure in Tehran has changed significantly amid the war, US pressure, and the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz. Experts estimate that the influence of Ali Khamenei’s office is weakening. Even the figure of his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, is no longer perceived as the undisputed center of control, and the formal apex of the system itself is becoming increasingly unstable. The IRGC is cited as the main new center of power. Most survey respondents believe that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps currently effectively controls key issues of war, the nuclear program, and strategy in the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, the IRGC itself is not considered a unified structure. Within the corps, various influence groups continue to struggle, from veterans of the Iran-Iraq War to separate networks of former commanders and representatives of the old guard. Experts believe President Masoud Pezeshkian plays a minimal role in the country’s actual governance. His influence has proven to be the lowest of all figures, and the presidency itself has effectively become a civilian shell for decisions made in other centers of power. At the center of the controversy is a reportedly confidential letter sent by senior Iranian officials to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, warning that Iran’s worsening economic crisis leaves the leadership with little practical choice but to seriously negotiate with the United States over the nuclear issue.The reported letter, which was never meant to become public, is now seen by many observers as evidence of a widening split inside the Iranian establishment over whether Tehran should compromise with Washington or continue confrontation. Iran’s public messaging now emphasizes total unity. But the sequence of events suggests deep disagreement inside the ruling establishment over one core question: can Iran survive its economic crisis without a nuclear deal, or must it negotiate despite ideological resistance? For now, Tehran says there is no division. The nuclear program is receiving special attention. Most analysts believe it remains the primary focus of potential bargaining with the United States. The likelihood of a new nuclear deal is assessed as quite high, but compromise is only possible within very narrow limits.
The focus is primarily on restrictions on uranium enrichment levels in exchange for partial sanctions relief. Meanwhile, ballistic missiles and regional proxy groups remain hard red lines for Tehran. Experts also note the slow and extremely complex decision-making process within the Iranian system. They believe the regime’s problem lies not only in its ideology but also in the very structure of power, which is designed to avoid mistakes rather than to respond quickly. Tehran, meanwhile, is confident that it can weather Washington’s pressure by exploiting domestic US weaknesses—rising oil prices, the pre-election situation, and political risks for Donald Trump. Analysts see a particular threat not at the negotiating table, but at sea. The actions of IRGC field commanders in the Strait of Hormuz and around maritime routes could provoke new crises faster than diplomats can reach an agreement.
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