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Kadyrov and his team in Russia lose influence: Chechnya is indicator of vulnerability of Russia

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On June 3, 2025, near the Yaroslavsky railway station in Moscow, six men, according to eyewitnesses, forcibly dragged a 40-year-old businessman into the trunk of a Mercedes. Witnesses say that the man resisted and loudly begged for help, he was grabbed by the arms and legs, carried through the waiting room and thrown into the trunk of a car with AMP series license plates – usually belonging to law enforcement and government agencies. The car had a flashing light. The police, who were present at the station, did not intervene.

"Telegraph" collected all the details of the incident. A few hours after the abduction, the car was stopped by traffic police officers, people with "crusts" drove up to the scene, a "traffic jam" arose, during which representatives of the department began to find out "who is cooler". It turned out that the kidnappers were the guards and assistants of Adam Delimkhanov , Ramzan Kadyrov’s right hand. The car is officially registered to a resident of Chechnya, Aslanbek Ismailov . One of the kidnappers turned out to be Visali Churchayev , a Chechen security officer close to the aforementioned Delimkhanov.

A criminal case has been opened into the kidnapping of Areg Shchepikhin near the Yaroslavsky railway station in Moscow. According to the Investigative Committee of Russia, all defendants in the case have been taken to the Moscow division of the Investigative Committee. It is not reported under what article the case was opened.

Recall, Chechnya, under the tight control of Ramzan Kadyrov, operates as a fully authoritarian regime deeply intertwined with the Kremlin. While Chechnya might seem like a localized issue, its future is intricately tied to the broader political landscape of Russia and its relations with Europe. In the context of international sanctions, military actions in Ukraine, and Russia’s growing isolation on the world stage, the stability or instability of Chechnya is becoming an important indicator of the vulnerability of the Russian Federation. This could of course have possible consequences for the security of Europe and global geopolitics. Chechnya’s authoritarian regime depends heavily on the personal bond between Kadyrov and Putin. This unique relationship has kept Chechnya stable in recent years, with Kadyrov ensuring the suppression of internal opposition and Putin providing financial and political support in return for Kadyrov’s loyalty. However, any disruption in this relationship – whether due to political shifts, health crises, or even the death of one of the two leaders – could severely destabilize the region. The reliance on these personal ties makes the alliance fragile, raising questions about what will happen when Kadyrov or Putin can no longer maintain their roles. Recently, it has become increasingly clear that Kadyrov is aware of his health prospects and is therefore trying to promote his children and close relatives as much as possible. While Kadyrov has reasons to prepare his descendants to take over, it is unclear whether power will be successfully transferred to a Kadyrov Jr. At the same time, it is uncertain whether Kadyrov’s loyalists would accept this transition or attempt a coup.
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