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Today, there are important updates from the Russian Federation.
Here, the Russians are dealing with a huge problem as the continuous Ukrainian long-range strikes have exposed an existential Russian weakness. With Russia running so low on air defense missiles that they started rationing them, the voices in the Russian parliament have started urging Putin to end the war to save the face before it is too late.
Recent reports from the front and the rear alike are indicating that Russia is running out of critical interceptor missiles, especially for systems like Pantsir, forcing commanders to ration ammunition and leave entire sectors exposed. Military analysts and officials have begun cautiously floating what was once unthinkable, the idea that the Kremlin should consider ending the war before it is too late. Too late means the moment when Russia’s layered air defense collapses entirely, leaving key infrastructure, military bases, and even major cities vulnerable to ever increasing Ukrainian strikes that the Russian army can no longer stop.
This fear is not theoretical, as it is already unfolding most prominent in Crimea, where the situation has become critical. Russian air defense units in Sevastopol have openly pleaded for more missiles, issuing desperate calls to the Ministry of Defense, describing how they can see incoming Ukrainian drones, but lack the ammunition to intercept them. In some cases, troops have been forced to fire small arms at incoming drones, a clear sign of exhaustion of proper air defense resources.
The reasons behind this shortage are structural and compounding, as Ukrainian strikes have repeatedly targeted Russian defense industry facilities, including repair centers like the Granit innovation hub in Sevastopol, which was heavily damaged in a recent drone attack. At the same time, Western sanctions are tightening, with countries like Germany actively dismantling smuggling networks that previously supplied Russia with critical microelectronics. Without these components, production of modern air defense systems and missiles is severely constrained.
As a result, Russian stockpiles are now failing to recover, as production cannot keep pace with consumption, especially as Ukraine increases the scale and frequency of drone attacks. In Crimea, this has led to cascading failures, with radar systems destroyed, jamming stations neutralized, and air defense coverage fragmented. Each Ukrainian strike further weakens the remnants of the Russian air defense system, making the next one even harder to stop.
At the same time, the situation across the rest of Russia is not much better. With shortages of advanced missiles, Russian forces are increasingly relying on outdated eighty-year-old systems like the Strela Ten, which has a limited engagement range of just five kilometers. They were never designed to counter modern drone swarms, yet they are now being pressed into service out of necessity. At the same time, newly produced missiles are being sent directly from factories to the front, indicating that there are no reserves left. Russia is also forced to constantly reposition its remaining air defense assets to try to catch up with Ukrainian strikes, even deploying an improvised air defense system in Oryol, consisting of a truck-mounted launcher equipped with air-to-air missiles. All this leaves large parts of the vast Russian territory with minimal coverage, with only isolated pockets of protection around the most critical locations.
This growing gap has forced Russia to rely more heavily on its air force to intercept Ukrainian strikes, which is a risky and costly alternative, as proven by the skyrocketing Russian losses recently. Within days, Ukrainian forces shot down a Ka Twenty-seven helicopter over the Black Sea, while a Su Thirty fighter crashed in Crimea under unclear circumstances. At the same time, Russia lost an An-Twenty-six transport aircraft and a Su Thirty-four strike jet while trying to intercept Ukrainian drones, further eroding its already strained aviation capabilities. Each loss not only reduces operational capacity but also reflects the increasing pressure on air assets to compensate for failing ground-based defenses.
Amid this crisis, the contrast in priorities has become striking, as while frontline units lack basic missiles, Russia has rapidly expanded air defenses around President Vladimir Putin’s residence in Valdai, installing twenty seven Pantsir systems on towers in layered defensive rings. At the same time, fake air defense systems are being deployed near critical infrastructure to mislead Ukrainian reconnaissance and scare off the drones…
