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Despite the Kremlin’s apparent monolithic approach to managing Russia’s domestic affairs, the reality is quite different. The latest event that vividly demonstrates this is the situation surrounding the blocking of Telegram. As Russian expert Alexey Levchenko explained on the FREEDOM television channel , the status of this messaging app, as well as the overall outlook on the future of the Russian internet segment, is pitting the interests of various political and clan groups in Russia against each other.
Some members of the Russian "elite" advocate blocking Telegram, while others, on the contrary, are categorically opposed. In both cases, the stakes are high and there’s a significant redistribution of spheres of influence in the Russian information space.
Among Telegram’s opponents, Levchenko names the first deputy of Putin’s administration, as well as the FSB, which operates through the Ministry of Digital Development.
"The Russian government has different approaches to a phenomenon like Telegram. There are different influence groups within the Kremlin. For example, there’s Alexey Gromov, the first deputy chief of staff of the Presidential Executive Office. He’s responsible for propaganda broadcast on television channels. Then there’s the Ministry of Digital Development, which is effectively overseen by the FSB. These two groups want to shut down Telegram and get everyone hooked on a completely controlled Russian version of Max," the journalist explains.
However, the idea of moving to Max hasn’t been met with much enthusiasm by Russian society. Furthermore, blocking Telegram risks bringing down Russia’s propaganda machine, which actively uses the service.
"Luring people to Max is very difficult. Max’s audience is much smaller than Telegram’s, as is the audience of various government agencies. Furthermore, the Kremlin has built a fairly extensive infrastructure of its own channels on Telegram. All the pro-war bloggers are there. There are tons of propaganda channels there. For example, someone like Sergei Mironov, the head of the A Just Russia faction, openly spoke out against the Telegram ban," Levchenko notes.
This public demarche was no accident, as there is a second Kremlin group that is doing everything it can to prevent Telegram from being blocked.
"Mironov’s speech is no coincidence, because there’s a second group in the Kremlin, overseen by Sergei Kiriyenko, another deputy head of the presidential administration. And it’s his men who have built a massive propaganda network on Telegram. And they absolutely don’t want to get rid of this tool because it’s a convenient one. Moreover, it’s poorly controlled by the security forces and intelligence agencies. This factor is also convenient for them to build their shady schemes," the journalist says.
The current restrictions are just a trial run, and they will only become more stringent. However, with a VPN, Telegram and other services blocked in Russia are still accessible.
"For now, it seems we’re still seeing some test restrictions on Telegram. This isn’t a full-fledged restriction yet. It’s an attempt to force everyone to switch to Max and a hint that Telegram will soon be shut down. It was the same with WhatsApp. WhatsApp has been gradually blocked for a very long time. When they shut everything down, some people will use VPNs and continue using the same messaging apps. This is what’s happening now with Instagram, which is formally banned in Russia, but everyone uses it," Levchenko believes.
While Telegram’s future remains unclear, it’s already clear that Russian citizens will face increasingly severe restrictions on internet access.
"The overall strategy is clear. It’s a strategy for building a sovereign internet in Russia. Attempts at restrictions will continue. As an example, consider Iran, where only a total internet ban helped the local regime cling to power in January of this year. All messaging apps were banned there, too. However, there, as in Russia, people used them without any problems; everything worked through a VPN. And, most likely, in Russia, as in Iran, there will be two parallel realities," Levchenko concludes.
The Russian government is terrified of popular discontent, which could escalate into mass protests. All the bans on online communication are aimed precisely at this. But this strategy is unlikely to work in Russia’s reality.
"The Russian government basically lives with the fear that protests might break out. That some kind of consolidation of people might occur, and not just through Telegram. They could do so through any messenger they don’t control, through any means of communication”, the expert concluded.
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