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As reported Ukraine’s campaign to cripple Kremlin oil and gas production with relentless drone strikes chalked up another processing plant set ablaze recently, with long-range robot aircraft scoring hits and touching off fiery explosions on the premises of a major condensate gas processing site near the Baltic Sea port city St. Petersburg.
Flying wing drones tipped with explosive warheads swooped down on the Ust-Luga facility, Russia’s main processing site for natural gas piped from the Arctic and West Siberia. The Gazprom-owned processing center facility is one of the largest natural gas processing plants in Europe and the main outlet for Russian natural gas exports by the Baltic Sea. According to open sources, the Ust-Luga complex at full capacity can process up to 45 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually and from that produce 13 million tons of liquified natural gas, practically all of it for export. The site’s annual capacity also includes 3.6 million tons of ethane, 1.8 million tons of propane-butane, as well as naphtha, jet fuel, fuel oil, and gas oil for export. İn this case although diesel exports edged higher, weaker loadings of naphtha and fuel oil – particularly from the Baltic ports affected by strikes on the Ust-Luga terminal – pulled overall shipments down. Bad weather may also have slowed port activity.
The decline in gasoline prices on the exchange, which has finally begun, will have a slight impact on retail prices and gas station prices, which remain high. However, certain government actions have stabilized them at this level.
The Russian fuel market is currently experiencing a correction, a pullback, after wholesale gasoline prices repeatedly hit historic highs. AI-92 crude fell more than 3% in a day, to 71,750 rubles per ton. Traders attribute the price decline to a seasonal decline in demand and increased supplies after some refineries completed maintenance.
However, there are other explanations for the stabilization, according to Bloomberg, citing Vortexa data.
In the first 26 days of October, seaborne shipments of petroleum products from Russia averaged 1.89 million barrels per day. By comparison, last year at this time, export volumes were 2 million barrels per day, and in 2022, they will be 2.3 million. And the October figure has been declining every year. In the previous three years, however, this was traditionally followed by a surge in supplies.
As Bloomberg notes, diesel fuel exports increased slightly in October, but naphtha and gasoline exports were too low for Russia to avoid a drop in petroleum product exports to a record low during the Second World War. The agency cites Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, US and EU sanctions, and adverse weather conditions in recent days as reasons for the decline in export supplies.
Russia has a ban on gasoline exports until the end of 2025, with the exception of Eurasian Economic Union countries and supplies under intergovernmental agreements. Domestic diesel fuel supplies are permitted only to refineries. For now, diesel shipments remain fairly stable, primarily going to nearby markets like Turkey and Africa where deliveries can occur before sanctions take full effect, Bloomberg reported.
Ukraine has intensified its attacks on Russian energy facilities in recent months, using long-range drones to target refineries and storage depots deep inside Russian territory. Kyiv maintains that these operations cripple Russia’s capacity to bankroll its invasion.
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