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In 2026, Ukraine has been steadily increasing the number of strikes against Russian military and infrastructure facilities in annexed Crimea. Military experts are analyzing the reasons for the confirmed successful attacks. Krym.Realii analyzed the activities of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in Crimea from January to April and compiled detailed statistics on Ukrainian strikes. In January 2026, explosions were heard almost daily in annexed Crimea. The Ukrainian Defense Forces reported the results of the attacks significantly less frequently. In the first ten days of February, there were no reports from the Ukrainian military of damage to targets on the Crimean Peninsula. In total, the following were affected in February: Radar – 6, SAM/ZRPK – 5, Iskander OTRK-1, Ships/boats – 3, Airplanes/helicopters – 3, Fuel and lubricants warehouse – 1, Oil depots – 1. It can be stated that in February, 12 air defense systems were destroyed in a shorter period, compared to 11 in January: 2 aircraft and 1 helicopter, 2 ships and 1 boat.
Already in March, the Main Intelligence Directorate reported that in February, a Project 1496 M1 seagoing tug and a Project 16640 ship, which were not mentioned in other reports, were also hit. "This is a classic case where the number of Russian air defense systems destroyed in Crimea translates into the quality of Ukrainian strikes against Crimean targets. These aren’t just ‘gaps’ in the peninsula’s radar coverage and active air defense and electronic warfare coverage, but actual ‘corridors’ for Ukrainian drones and missiles. The monthly number of Ukrainian attacks has remained roughly the same, but their effectiveness has increased significantly," a retired captain of the 3rd rank, who previously served in Ukrainian military intelligence, told Krym.Realii on condition of anonymity.
The former intelligence officer expressed confidence that the number of hits on Russian targets in Crimea will continue to grow, as Russia loses the ability to replace its lost radar and air defense systems. In March, Russian military and infrastructure facilities in Crimea were attacked with the same intensity as in the previous two months. However, according to reports and announcements from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine, the Main Intelligence Directorate, the Special Operations Forces, and the Security Service, the number of hits increased. Local public groups frequently reported that during UAV strikes, the Pantsir air defense missile systems remained silent, with only the sound of automatic and machine gun fire being heard. Russian military bloggers wrote about a shortage of missiles for these air defense missile systems. Overall results for March: Radar – 12, SAM/ZRPK – 8, Iskander OTRK – 3, Ships/boats – 2, Airplanes/helicopters/UAVs – 2, MLRS-3, Oil depots – 2, Electrical substations – 2, Miscellaneous objects – 4. At the end of March , Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmitry Pletenchuk explained why the Ukrainian Defense Forces had been increasingly engaged in effective attacks in Crimea. A Navy spokesman explained that it is no secret that after the number of radar surveillance assets is reduced, the number of targets they cover begins to decrease until Russia restores some of them. In April, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued their assault on Crimea. Overall results for April: Radar/SAR – 11, SAM/ZRPK – 2, Iskander OTRK-2, Ships/boats – 7, Airplanes/helicopters/UAVs – 4, Oil depots – 7, Electrical substations – 1. Military experts have a clear assessment of the reasons for the increase in the number of strikes on Russian targets in annexed Crimea. Crimea has become Chernobaevka, says military expert Roman Svitan . "The fact is, the Russians are using Crimea. And we’re using it too—currently, as a so-called Chernobaevka. No matter how many air defense systems we destroy in Crimea, the Russians are removing them from their facilities deep inside Russia, practically exposing them to our attacks, and redeploying them to the Crimean direction, since they need to cover the Kerch Bridge. Moscow and the Kerch Bridge are the two points where the Russians maintain a certain air defense density, which allows them to shoot down almost 100% of airborne targets," the military expert notes. The same situation with weak air defense as in Crimea is developing in neighboring Russia. Losses of Russian air defense systems have increased by 240% in recent months compared to the previous period, OSINT analyst Kyle Glen reported . The Defense Forces have been actively clearing Russian air defenses over Crimea in recent years, which has now allowed Ukrainian weapons to operate more freely in the region. This opinion was expressed by Evgeny Diky , a veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war and former company commander of the Aidar battalion.
