North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is gradually becoming large enough to potentially overwhelm the US ground-based missile defense system.
Bloomberg analyzed the DPRK’s potential nuclear capabilities.
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung stated in late January that Pyongyang is capable of producing enough material to create up to 20 nuclear warheads per year.
The construction or modernization of facilities for producing fissile materials could further accelerate this growth. At the same time, the DPRK is working on new delivery systems.
“At the same time, the Hwasong-15, -17, -18, and -19 intercontinental ballistic missiles, together with existing warheads, can already provide a level of firepower sufficient to overcome the US ground-based midcourse missile defense system, designed to intercept a limited attack and built at a cost of approximately $65 billion,” Bloomberg reports.
A significantly larger arsenal of short-range missiles could strike US allies in Asia and American bases in Guam, home to one of the world’s largest ammunition depots.
North Korea’s Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles
Estimates of the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles in North Korea vary.
The US Defense Intelligence Agency stated last year in a presentation supporting the Golden Dome missile defense project that Pyongyang has only 10 such missiles.
However, North Korea has conducted at least as many test launches over the past decade and may have up to 48 launchers, according to an estimate by Vann Van Dipen of 38 North—an online publication that tracks Pyongyang’s military developments.
According to his estimate, North Korea may currently have up to 24 intercontinental ballistic missiles, and production is ongoing.
US Missile Defenses
The US ground-based midcourse missile defense system, which includes 44 interceptor missiles deployed in Alaska and California, as well as sites for an additional 20 in Alaska, was designed to counter a significantly smaller threat.
The US is also working on the Golden Dome missile defense program, which aims to protect the country from any airborne threats, particularly from North Korea, China, and Russia. It is unclear whether this is possible without spending a trillion dollars or more.
At the same time, it is worth considering that a single intercontinental ballistic missile can carry a nuclear warhead with submunitions, which would also need to be intercepted, not just the missile itself.
Even by the lowest estimates—some experts believe annual production amounts to only 12–15 warheads—the growth rate outpaces India, which has expanded its arsenal to 180 warheads, adding eight between 2024 and 2025.
According to experts, during Donald Trump’s first presidential term, Kim Jong Un’s regime produced enough material for approximately six warheads per year.
During that period, Trump’s relationship with Kim shifted from teetering on the brink of conflict to nearly friendly, prompting the US president to declare that North Korea was no longer a nuclear threat.
At the same time, Kim’s nuclear missiles have never been tested with actual warheads, and it is unclear whether they could withstand a flight to North America, evade defense systems, or withstand the heat and extreme stresses during atmospheric reentry.
