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Now OPEC is punishing Putin, making it harder for the Russian dictator to continue the war

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OPEC has made a decisive move to punish member states violating production quotas by ramping up output and pushing oil prices to new lows. As the global markets react, the shockwaves hit Russia the hardest, with its economy, already strangled by sanctions and inflation, now gasping for air under the weight of collapsing revenues and shrinking influence within the oil cartel. Recently, OPEC+ announced plans for a significant increase in oil production for July, adding 411,000 barrels per day, Euromaidan Press reports. This is the third consecutive monthly hike, and the move aims to regain market share, and discipline overproducing members like Russia, Iraq, and Kazakhstan. Despite the risk of oversupply, the group, led by Saudi Arabia, is prioritizing volume over price to reassert its influence in the global oil market, building on its previous decision not to increase prices.

The immediate effect of this decision has been a notable decline in oil prices. For Russia, these developments pose significant challenges. As of early June 2025, the price of Russian Urals crude oil has fallen below 50 dollars per barrel, marking its lowest level since June 2023. Specifically, in April, Urals crude was priced at around 47.50 dollars. This is extremely below the 70-dollar benchmark used in the initial Russian budget planning for the year. It is estimated that each 10-dollar drop in oil prices costs Russia approximately 17 billion dollars annually. The resulting revenue gap of around 40 billion dollars is expected to widen the deficit to 10% of the projected Russian annual budget of approximately 415 billion dollars, Euromaidan Press says.

Moreover, Russia’s position in the Asian oil market is under threat. While Russia has been exporting discounted oil to countries like India and China, with the massive increase in production, other OPEC+ members are also targeting these markets, increasing competition and potentially driving prices even lower, while at the same time offering better quality oil compared to the Russians. This increased competition in Asia could erode Russia’s market share and further impact its oil revenues. Additionally, Russia’s influence within OPEC+ appears to be waning. The recent production increases have been driven primarily by Saudi Arabia, with Russia reportedly unhappy about these hikes. Overall, while Russia has a say in increasing OPEC+ oil production on paper, it may be more of a forced move by more influential members who stand to benefit more from it, mainly the Gulf states. Due to sanctions, the lower price, and higher production cost of Urals crude, Russia faces increased pressure to offer greater discounts, further hurting its budget. As OPEC+ members plan to increase production further in the coming months, Russia may face even more challenging times ahead. So, OPEC is punishing Putin, making it harder for the Russian dictator to continue the war.
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