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US President Donald Trump’s statements about the possibility of a change of power in Tehran have once again raised questions about how realistic the scenario of overthrowing the regime of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is and what is really required for this. Channel 12 writes about this. Experts note that a one-time military operation is out of the question. According to Danny Cytrynowicz, a senior fellow in the Iran and Shia Axis program at the Institute for National Security Studies, regime change in Iran would require a large-scale and sustained campaign, for which there is currently neither political nor military preparedness. Analysts point out that the collapse of the system is only possible if several factors converge. First, a sustained military operation against the regime’s key pillars, primarily the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the high command, is necessary. This is not about targeted strikes, but about the systemic destruction of the governance structure and the core power structure. Secondly, a consolidated domestic alternative is required. Even if the central government weakens, without an organized political force capable of assuming control of the country, Iran risks facing chaos and destabilization. Currently, there is no united opposition, either within or outside the country, ready to form a transitional leadership.
Third, historical experience shows that regime change by force presupposes territorial control. However, after the campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States lacks the readiness for a large-scale military presence and subsequent state-building. The removal of the 86-year-old Supreme Leader is being discussed separately. However, experts believe that even such a step does not guarantee the collapse of the system. Iran has a well-established mechanism for the transfer of power in the event of the leader’s death. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps plays a key role, capable of ensuring a controlled succession and preserving the existing governance model. The system relies not only on Khamenei himself but also on the institutional structure. Another possible scenario is internal collapse amid protests and social tension. However, such a development could lead to civil conflict without the guarantee of a stable alternative government, posing risks for the entire region. Experts also emphasize the dual nature of external pressure. Sanctions and military threats can complicate the functioning of the state, but they often consolidate supporters of the government and intensify mobilization rhetoric. A weakening economy does not necessarily lead to a political turning point. İn this case US President Donald Trump has warned Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that his current location could be revealed. "If I were the Supreme Leader of Iran, I would be afraid to sleep in one place for too long," Trump said. As previously reported, US President Donald Trump has indicated that he does not rule out the use of force against Iran if the negotiations reach an impasse. He stated that the military option remains on the table, and Washington views it as a viable alternative to diplomacy. Trump also announced that a second aircraft carrier would soon be sent to the region, while one is already there, strengthening the American military presence. The White House chief emphasized that he expected a positive outcome from the talks. However, he accompanied his remarks with a stern warning: if diplomacy fails, "it will be a very bad day" for Iran. Trump thus clearly signaled the US’s readiness to take more decisive measures if dialogue fails.
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