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Russian dictator Vladimir Putin does not care about the losses during the war in Ukraine. However, in 2026, he may have to stop. In an interview with the German publication Der Standard, experts named several reasons that will lead to this.
Emily Ferris, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a British policy think tank, believes that Putin has failed to achieve his initial aims in Ukraine. One of the UK’s best-known Russia experts, Mark Galeotti, believes it is virtually impossible for Ukraine to liberate the occupied territories by military means. At the same time, losses in manpower do not matter to Putin. He views soldiers as living weapons.
"But the more of them die in Ukraine, the higher the recruitment costs and the greater the pressure on the labor market and the economy," Galeotti said.
"Judging by population, Putin probably considers the ratio of killed to wounded as a victory. However, if this continues, Russia will eventually have to slow down its offensive actions," he added. Experts note that the Russian economy is not as fragile as previously thought. However, pressure on it is growing, which sooner or later may affect Putin’s army.
In addition, the Russian army will most likely exhaust its Soviet weapons by next year, and new equipment is more expensive.
"Perhaps by the end of the year, but no later than 2026, a stark choice of ‘guns or butter’ will arise. The cost of war for ordinary people will increase. The question is when the protests will begin," Galeotti believes. Mark Galeotti believes that the overthrow of Putin and his regime in Russia is unlikely.
"A coup would be very difficult. After all, the various parts of the security apparatus have been watching each other for a long time. Each of them would ask themselves whether an uprising would be more risky than doing nothing," Galeotti said.
Emily Ferris is not sure that the overthrow of Putin will lead to the end of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
"A coup would most likely be accompanied by civil war. In that case, it is difficult to imagine how the war could continue. But an orderly transition would most likely bring to power someone very similar to Putin, who has created a system that reproduces itself," she said. Both Galeotti and Ferris currently see little room for maneuver for the US president.
"If Putin does not see any victory on the battlefield coming and at the same time feels that the economic and political situation may become more difficult for him in six or 12 months, then he would be interested in a deal. The problem is that there is nothing to indicate that at the moment," Galeotti said.
Ferris believes the Kremlin is currently waiting to see what other proposals the White House will make while trying to gain a foothold.
"In 2026, I can imagine a situation in which a ceasefire would be attractive to Russia. Then they could sit out Trump’s term and then try to install a pro-Russian leader in Ukraine through political means," the expert said.
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