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As reported On May 9, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed the opinion that the war in Ukraine may be "nearing an end," The Guardian reports.
The publication notes that these comments raise the question of why the Russian president might be seeking a possible end to the war now, given how the fighting is unfolding.
The publication recalls that after Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, Moscow gradually seized Ukrainian territory. Although the Russian attacks were slow, exhausting, and accompanied by heavy losses, they created the impression that Ukraine was slowly but surely losing. However, the situation subsequently changed. Ukraine’s recapture of Kupyansk in December—which Moscow claimed had been captured a month earlier—surprised even Western military experts.
"The agreement, which in February prevented the occupiers from using Starlink satellite internet, as well as Russia’s restriction of access to Telegram, which is also widely used for communication, helped Ukraine regain lost territory in the Zaporizhzhia region, an area of about 100 square miles," the article says. The publication reported that Ukraine claims to have killed or wounded more Russian soldiers than it was called up for over the past five months. While these figures are difficult to verify, Ukraine bases its statistics on combat footage. According to her data, in March and April, the Ukrainian military killed or wounded about 35,000 Russian soldiers per month, mostly as a result of drone strikes.
According to economist Janis Kluge, who relies on an analysis of regional budget data, the conscription rate in Russia will drop to approximately 800–1,000 people per day in 2026. That’s 24,000–30,000 people per month.
This is consistent with statements by former President Dmitry Medvedev, chairman of the Russian conscription commission, who noted that "more than 80,000 people" signed up for the armed forces in the first quarter. The publication reported that the Russian economy was in trouble at the beginning of 2026, but a sudden rise in oil prices, caused by Donald Trump’s attack on Iran, gave impetus to recovery.
According to the Kyiv School of Economics, oil export revenues, crucial for the Russian treasury, amounted to $19 billion in March. This is up from $9.8 billion in February and the highest monthly figure since autumn 2023. "However, Ukraine’s recent long-range missile and drone strikes on Russian oil export terminals in Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic – two of 14 refineries or terminals that Ukraine says it bombed in April – have sharply reduced export volumes," the publication notes.
According to Sergei Vakulenko of the Carnegie Endowment, daily exports have fallen from 5.2 million barrels per day to 3.5 million. He added that higher oil prices are currently sufficient to offset the projected decline in Russian exports.
However, Vakulenko believes that the situation could change quickly if the US and Iran reach an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices fall. It is noted that at the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, Ukraine relied heavily on Western military equipment and training.
"Kyiv once placed great hopes on Western F-16 fighter jets to achieve a breakthrough, as well as on American Patriot air defense systems to protect its airspace," the publication reports.
Over time, it became clear that Western reserves were running out, forcing Ukraine to invest more in its own technology and equipment.
The publication noted that the country’s success in this area is evidenced by long-range strikes against Russian oil infrastructure. Specifically, three drone attacks in the past two weeks on an oil refinery in Perm, located 1,500 km from the front line. Recently, Russia has been focusing its efforts primarily on the diplomatic front. The publication suggests that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin hopes to persuade US President Donald Trump to force Zelensky to hand over the rest of the Donetsk region to compensate for the lack of progress on the front line.
Yet, despite Putin’s comments over the weekend and his offer to work with former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder as a mediator, there is no sign that Russia’s maximalist demands have softened.
"Trump has been distracted by the Iranian crisis, but Putin may be hoping to re-engage the White House in negotiations, at least with new language," the publication believes.
