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As politicians and generals gather in Germany for the Munich Security Conference, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin faces a severe human resources crisis in Ukraine , The Telegraph reports.
The publication notes that the Russian army is unable to find enough volunteers—even recruiting them from prisons and various Third World countries—to replace losses on the battlefield in Ukraine. It cites estimates of Russia’s losses on the front at 35,000 per month.
The article also states that while Russian troops continue to advance slowly, their pace is extremely slow: in some sectors it is only 15-75 meters per day. It is noted that this is slower than many of the grueling offensive operations of World War I, such as the Battles of the Somme or Passchendaele. However, the human losses of the aggressor country are equal or even greater.
"Russia has effectively transitioned from equipment losses to much greater personnel losses. The assault formations and recruitment channels that support the front were designed with their expendability in mind. The system is built to withstand a war of attrition, even with significant human losses," said Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment.
According to the publication’s intelligence sources, Putin appears to be currently conducting a "secret mobilization." The usual six-month conscription cycles, which historically amounted to approximately 130,000 men per enrollment, have been replaced by a system of continuous conscription.
This is intended to conceal the actual number of men being called up. According to the data, called-up reservists, typically assigned to protect infrastructure and perform tasks in the rear, are in fact being reassigned to front-line units.
It is emphasized that this new secret mobilization is in fact even larger than the one that took place in 2022, and this is precisely why Putin is so keen to keep it secret. The dissatisfaction of ordinary Russians with this could lead to unrest in the country.
At the same time, as the publication emphasizes, the Kremlin leader shows no desire for negotiations. It’s possible that Putin’s strategy is to maintain endurance, to outlast Western political unity – such as it is.
According to the publication, if he manages to avoid another politically damaging wave of forced mobilization, he can count on time being on his side.
The article notes that the political trauma of the "partial mobilization" of September 2022, which triggered social unrest and mass emigration, remains fresh in the Kremlin’s memory, but at the same time, the Russian military machine needs fresh meat to feed the meat grinder.
While the publication predicts that such measures may prolong operational endurance in the short term, they cannot last indefinitely.
Now on the horizon looms the prospect of full mandatory mobilization, which is politically toxic and socially destabilizing.
"This would mean a significant escalation of the internal situation, which would potentially undermine the stability of the regime," the publication predicts.
The publication also draws another parallel with World War I. A protracted military stalemate in Europe and economic difficulties at home led to regime change in Russia in 1917.
Therefore, it is possible that ultimately it will be the Russian people who will overthrow the dictator again when they realize how he has destroyed the country’s economy and the male population.
"If the economic decline accelerates and battlefield casualties continue to rise at the same rate, Russian society will come under significant pressure," the article says.
The publication believes that Russia cannot continue this war indefinitely, and therefore Ukraine can win. However, as the publication points out, success depends on Europe’s sustained and united resolve.
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