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The Kremlin regime is trying to convince Russians that they are at war with all of NATO in order to maintain the myth of a "victorious army," said Russian political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin.
"We’ve lost a million men, thousands of tanks, hundreds of aircraft, the Black Sea Fleet, which is afraid to leave Novorossiysk and has already left Sevastopol. And what about NATO’s losses? Well, NATO hasn’t arrived yet. Where are the regular NATO units? Where are the NATO planes with their NATO pilots? None of that is there. Putin is at war with Ukraine. And he can’t defeat it," he said.
According to Oreshkin, if you critically evaluate everything Putin says, it becomes obvious that “this man is simply insane.”
Putin’s regime wasn’t always what it is today—it was built slowly, over time, with rights and opportunities gradually being stripped away here and there and gradually expanded, political scientist said. He also noted that the sanctions have seriously shaken Russia. The expert does not exclude that the sanctions and the war in Ukraine will cause Russians to rebel against Putin, as living conditions in the country are becoming increasingly difficult.
Three and a half years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with fighting at a stalemate and the US-led peace process stalled, Kyiv’s allies are once again talking about renewing economic pressure on Moscow. The goal is to make the war so expensive that the Kremlin is forced to change course, CNN reports.
Despite 18 EU sanctions packages and dozens of measures from the US, UK, and other countries, the Russian economy remains vibrant. However, cracks are becoming increasingly visible: growth is slowing to 1%, inflation is reaching 7%, and the key rate remains at a painful 17%.
The Kremlin’s oil and gas revenues are declining, and the budget deficit is growing. Yet, Russia plans to maintain military spending at four times its pre-war level by raising VAT from 20% to 22%. "This decision shows that the Kremlin is preparing for a long-term conflict," explains Alexandra Prokopenko of the Carnegie Center. Experts are convinced that the time has come not just for "more sanctions," but for more reasonable ones.
Timothy Ash of Chatham House proposes introducing a 20-30% "secondary tariff" on Russian exports, with the proceeds being used to support Ukraine.
The EU, for its part, is considering a €140 billion loan for Kyiv, financed by frozen Russian assets. "This would send a powerful signal to Moscow that Ukraine is funded and prepared to fight for a long time," says Ash. Another analyst, Alexander Kolyandr of the Center for European Policy Analysis, proposes another approach: encouraging the emigration of skilled workers from Russia. This, he believes, will deepen the labor crisis and create additional pressure on the Russian economy.
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