Russia’s massive losses in Ukraine and rising domestic instability are colliding at a dangerous moment. On March 22, 2024, Moscow’s Crocus City Hall attack killed at least 149 people and injured more than 600 just days after Putin’s reelection. By September 28, Ukraine estimated Russian casualties had passed 1.1 million troops.
A September 23 paper from Emily Ferris at RUSI warns that Russia’s focus on the Ukraine war has created blind spots in its domestic security, leaving openings for terrorism and unrest. The UN reports that between mid-2024 and mid-2025, Russia prosecuted nearly 4,000 individuals for dissent, as suppression deepens alongside mounting instability at home.
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