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Relations between Azerbaijan and Russia will not improve, even if the media shows a reconciliatory image, as Moscow will eventually act again. This opinion was expressed by Vladimir Kopchak, the head of the South Caucasus branch of the Center for Army Conversion and Disarmament Studies, during the "World and Us" project with Yevhen Magda.
"Even if the current conflict between Baku and Moscow in the media dies down, the toothpaste can’t be put back in the tube. It won’t happen, even if an image of understanding is shown. Sooner or later, Moscow will do something, and it will resurface. Even in the most peaceful scenario, something could happen. I agree with your logic that Moscow should behave cautiously, but this is not their style. They feel humiliated after their troops left Karabakh. They feel humiliated by the fact that Nikol Pashinyan managed to push for bilateral negotiations with Ilham Aliyev in a peace process format," he said.
Kopchak also noted that Russia feels humiliated for multiple reasons. "They feel humiliated because Baku didn’t just swallow the downing of a civilian passenger plane in December last year, where 38 people were killed. They feel humiliated because Baku simply demanded a human response. Some people ask why the reaction was so harsh to the downing in Baku, but more people died in Yekaterinburg. This is the same process. It’s a direct consequence of a crash or an attack in the sky over Grozny," he added.
According to Kopchak, Russia is now increasing pressure on Azerbaijan, and Baku is responding in a measured and occasionally mirrored manner, given its ability to do so.
"Everything is just beginning. And if we talk about the regional security context or even the broader geopolitical context, Moscow’s main problem is that it seems the Kremlin is now acting in a hybrid way. After the synchronized visits of Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan to Turkey, the Kremlin has lost control, as seen in Yekaterinburg and not only in Azerbaijan. Another topic for discussion is the revival of so-called anti-Maidan activities or a coup attempt in Armenia," Kopchak added.
Recall, on June 28, 2025, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Azerbaijan urgently contacted the Russian authorities. The reason was the events of June 27 in Yekaterinburg, Russia.
On June 30, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs conducted a special operation that resulted in the detention of two FSB agents who worked at Russia’s Sputnik agency — a branch of the Rossiya Segodnya media group in Baku. In response, Moscow summoned the Azerbaijani ambassador.
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