Russia launches a large-scale attack -Kremlin amasses additional forces, prepares for operations

With diplomatic efforts failing to produce results to end Russia’s four-year-war of invasion in Ukraine, Moscow appears ready to pursue its objectives through renewed military action. Russian troops have already stepped up offensives across multiple sections of the front line, with the main target being eastern Donetsk region. Since mid-March, Russian forces have increased the intensity of attacks along various front sectors, though their efforts are concentrated on a few key directions. Heavily fortified urban areas remain the primary objective. Moscow is aiming to advance toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in Donetsk, seeking to surround this key urban cluster by approaching from several directions rather than attacking head-on. However, as long as Kostiantynivka and Lyman remain under Ukrainian control, launching a direct campaign against Sloviansk and Kramatorsk will remain difficult for Russian forces. Russia is said to be targeting the capture of Kostiantynivka by late April, with the broader goal of taking control of the entire Donetsk region before the end of the year. Pressure is also building in the south as Russian troops are reinforcing positions near the border area between the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, while preparing for operations around Huliaipole and Orikhiv. Despite these ambitions, no decisive breakthrough has been achieved so far. The offensive is already encountering constraints and has yet to show the capacity for rapid, large-scale advances. Since mid-March, Russian forces have effectively initiated their seasonal campaign, renewing assaults across much of the front. Ukrainian defenders have so far managed to repel initial attacks, reportedly inflicting heavy losses. At present, the uptick in activity resembles probing operations designed to test defenses rather than a full-scale push. This aligns with patterns observed in previous years: after a winter slowdown, operations intensify in spring as weather conditions improve – firm ground supports heavy equipment, and increased vegetation offers concealment for advancing units. However, Russia lacks sufficient manpower and resources to mount a major offensive along the entire front, which stretches over roughly 1,200 kilometers. Instead, it is likely focusing on localized actions to fix Ukrainian forces in place while concentrating its main efforts on a limited number of priority sectors over the coming months. The central objective for this campaign appears to be setting the stage for future battles over Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in Donetsk region. To do this, Russian forces have intensified operations along several axes identified by Ukraine’s General Staff: Lyman, Sloviansk, and Kostiantynivka, while continuing pressure toward Pokrovsk. According to Ukrainian military spokesperson Hryhorii Shapoval, the heaviest fighting is currently taking place near Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. He noted that broader offensive operations elsewhere are unlikely as long as Ukrainian forces maintain control over Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Shapoval also indicated that Russian units, including elements of the 7th Corps, remain active in the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad area and have established logistical support there. While parts of these areas are still held by Ukraine, large sections have become contested “grey zones,” where neither side has full control. Russia’s approach to capturing Sloviansk and Kramatorsk relies on avoiding direct, high-cost assaults. Instead of attacking these fortified cities head-on, the plan focuses on surrounding them through coordinated advances from multiple directions – essentially attempting to isolate and pressure them into collapse. Meanwhile, units engaged in fighting around Kostiantynivka aim to continue their advance northward, targeting Druzhkivka and eventually Kramatorsk from the south. On the northern side, Russian troops are attempting to secure their flank by pushing from the Lyman direction toward Sloviansk. At the same time, forces operating near Siversk and Soledar are expected to approach the broader urban cluster from the east. In recent developments, Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps reported successfully repelling a large-scale Russian mechanized assault near Borova and Lyman. The attack reportedly involved dozens of armored vehicles and a significant number of motorized units. According to Oleksandr Borodin, spokesperson for Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps, smaller Russian infiltration units are typically detected and neutralized quickly. He also noted that large-scale, fast-moving mechanized offensives—similar to those seen earlier in the war—are costly for Russia, particularly in terms of equipment losses and repair. As a result, Russian forces appear to be prioritizing a more attritional approach. By deploying small, expendable infantry groups, they aim to strain Ukraine’s ability to rotate troops and maintain defensive cohesion.