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The Kremlin has begun a covert forced mobilization of the population amid extremely high losses of military personnel in the war of invasion in Ukraine and a rapid decline in recruitment rates, local media reported, citing the Institute for the Study of War, ISW. According to ISW data, on March 20, the governor of the Ryazan region issued a decree forcing medium and large enterprises to independently select employees to sign contracts with the Russian Defence Ministry. “The decree requires enterprises with 150 to 500 employees to select two to five workers to sign contracts, depending on the size of the enterprise,” the document states. It is noted that this “mobilization” decree will remain in force at least until September 20. Russia is taking such steps due to a critical manpower shortage – in January of this year, the recruitment rate fell below the level of losses for the first time since the start of the full-scale war. “The March 20 decree is a continuation of Russian covert mobilization efforts aimed at preventing another forced conscription and continuing to prepare manpower for the front in Ukraine,” ISW noted. Analysts also believe that mobilization in this format is not accidental. In particular, the Kremlin is deliberately creating conditions to shift responsibility for forced conscription onto enterprise managers and regional authorities. “Conscripted employees will likely direct their anger at the enterprises that selected them, or at the governor who issued the decree, although ultimately responsibility for the unacceptably high level of Russian troop losses lies with the Kremlin,” the report says. It should be noted that Russia is planning to involve all mobilized personnel currently stationed in temporarily occupied Crimea in combat operations. According to available information, starting April 1, Russia intends to transfer these soldiers to the front. It is also noted that former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev recently stated that there is “no need” for a new wave of mobilization in Russia. It should be noted that there have been continuous reports about individuals being compelled to sign military contracts under misleading circumstances or facing legal and financial consequences if they refuse. This approach allows the state to avoid the political risks of another overt mass mobilization while still channeling a steady flow of personnel into the armed forces.
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