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If massive strikes against Moscow continue and intensify, Russian elites may begin to pressure Russian dictator and war criminal Putin to end the war against Ukraine. This was stated in a column for Glavred by former head of the Luhansk Civil-Military Administration and former Deputy Minister for Temporarily Occupied Territories and Internally Displaced Persons, Georgiy Tuka.
"We shouldn’t count on the Russian elites either – I’m pessimistic about their ability to eliminate Putin. It’s more likely that, in the event of intense and frequent attacks on Moscow or obvious negative processes caused by our strikes on Russian enterprises, such as a catastrophic fuel shortage, they will encourage Putin to end the war rather than seek ways to eliminate him," he noted.
Tuka emphasized that Moscow will be the last to experience fuel shortages. Shortages are already being observed in the Far East, and 13 regions have imposed sales restrictions. Therefore, if the shortage spreads nationwide, resources will be concentrated in the capital.
"However, if we manage to hit certain targets directly in Moscow at least twice or three times, this will be of great importance for many countries, including Ukraine’s partners and Russia’s allies," he adds.
Tuka emphasized that hitting Moscow could break the myth of its inaccessibility and change the behavior of a number of states, for example, India or even Hungary.
Yes, there have already been attacks on Moscow City and the Kremlin’s Senate Palace, but back then, it was limited to Muscovites asking, ‘Where’s our air defense?’ and that was the end of it," he said, giving an example.
To change the mood in Russia, we need systemic strikes, which we currently lack. Therefore, in his opinion, limited, powerful resources would be better directed not at the Kremlin, but at the Russian General Staff or research institutes working for the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Recently, political and economic analyst Taras Zagorodniy noted that among the most discussed targets for strikes against Russia is the so-called "Yamal Cross"—a nodal point for the intersection of main gas pipelines.
At the same time, he said, the implementation of such a scenario primarily depends on Ukraine’s technical capabilities, particularly the volume of missile production, as similar facilities in Russia are carefully guarded and protected by air defenses. The expert believes that the destruction of energy and transport hubs could exert significant economic and political pressure on Moscow. “The cumulative effect of the Ukrainian strikes on ports and refineries is very significant. To provide concrete estimates, we need access to Russian figures, and even in Russia, not everyone knows the real numbers. Clearly, this is very painful for Russia, as it impacts its oil refining capacity and its ability to supply itself with fuel. And with the onset of autumn and falling temperatures, fuel demand will naturally increase.
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