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The offensive campaign of Russian occupation forces on the front is just beginning. The occupiers’ offensive will likely unfold according to scenarios from previous years of full-scale war, according to Pavel Lakiychuk, head of military security programs at the Strategy XXI Center for Global Studies.
"It’s not entirely accurate to say that the enemy’s offensive has failed. Rather, it’s only just beginning. Based on the gradual buildup of efforts both in the Donetsk area and in the south, it’s already possible to identify and visualize the main thrusts of the Russian command," he noted on the Freedom television channel. According to Lakiychuk, the enemy will focus its efforts on attempts to encircle the Ukrainian Defense Forces group in the northwest of Donbas and advance westward in the Zaporizhzhia direction. At the same time, in certain areas of the front, both the Defense Forces and the enemy have achieved success, the expert noted: "In the Aleksandrovsk area, both the Russians and the Ukrainian Defense Forces have achieved tactical success, not only successfully repelling the enemy’s advance but also continuing to push it back in a number of areas." The occupiers’ tactics near Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region have changed somewhat. Lakiychuk believes the Russians have likely abandoned the idea of enveloping the entire agglomeration. To implement such a plan, they would have needed to cross the Oskol River from the north and south.
"They’ve now clearly concluded that a frontal advance on the left bank of the Oskol is the most realistic. That is, their plans are being condensed to tactical success; they’re not trying to catch a bird in the sky, but tensions on this section of the front will persist," the expert continued. The enemy will try to stretch Ukrainian reserves. Lakiychuk predicts that the occupiers "will ‘set fire’ to the front line as much as possible over the widest possible area."
The expert separately noted the growing importance of the Liman direction in the plans of the Russian command. "This direction toward Slovyansk is aimed at creating a ‘northern pincer’ and encircling our force group in northwestern Donbas. Whether they succeed in achieving the goals set by Gerasimov and his General Staff, or whether they will again fall into disarray, depends largely on the Ukrainian Defense Forces and the ability of our defenders to find resources, reserves, and concentrate them for active defense," Pavlo Lakiychuk concluded. Major General Oleksandr Pivnenko, commander of the National Guard of Ukraine, stated that Russian occupation army has enough manpower to attempt an active offensive for another year or two, but they lack the capacity to reach Kyiv. As the NGU commander noted, the Russian invaders "want to seize as much of our land as possible so that their government can show the people that the army is advancing." "It’s difficult for them. They’re advancing very slowly and with colossal losses. A thousand people a day is the bare minimum for them," Pivnenko noted. At the same time, according to him, the Russian occupiers "will be able to maintain the current intensity of their offensive for another year or two, even with such losses." "They have significant mobilization resources, plus a dictatorship that will provide the manpower for an offensive if necessary. İn some areas Russian troops refuse to attack. At the same time, their casualty rate cannot be underestimated. They cannot create significant reserves to, say, advance north with an army, reach Kyiv, and settle the matter. They’re not even considering it, because their forces are finite, and the intensity of the war is frantic. Now the enemy wants to capture Pokrovsk, finish off Konstantinovka… I won’t even mention Slavyansk/Kramatorsk, because that’s not even a matter of two or three years. Let’s also take into account that our army’s effectiveness is growing," Pivnenko emphasized. At the same time, as the major general assures, Ukraine will create such a defense and density of the zone that for the Russians, the war will lose all meaning. "There will be no result other than losses. We’ve shown that we will fight for our land, and the Russians understand this. Now they’re faced with the dilemma of how to exit this war. If they do, they’ll have a lot of internal problems. I’m actually convinced they were mistaken because they thought we’d surrender. They wanted to enslave us. That won’t happen! That’s why they’re so angry with us. That’s why they’re furious, that’s why they’re attacking civilian cities," Pivnenko emphasized. In this regard, he explained why the occupiers are destroying Kharkiv.
