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After prolonged, fierce fighting, the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk found itself predominantly under the control of Russian troops. However, the capture of the city itself was neither an operational breakthrough nor a strategic turning point. Ukrainian expert and military-political observer for the Information Resistance group, Oleksandr Kovalenko, explains why Pokrovsk lost its key importance even before the final phase of the assault, what role it played in the attrition tactics, and how this will affect the negotiating positions of the parties.
It should be noted that, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), control over Pokrovsk was established based on the absence of confirmed military action within the city limits after January 28, while the Ukrainian project DeepState continues to designate part of the city as a "gray zone."
The expert commented on these discrepancies and explained how convincing this criterion is. According to Kovalenko, most of Pokrovsk is currently under the control of Russian occupation forces—approximately 98% of the city’s territory. The main fighting has shifted to the northern, northeastern, and northwestern outskirts: "Ukrainian Defense Forces are holding positions in the Grishino area, near the Grishinka River, as well as on the northwestern outskirts of the city—around the main hospital and the Pokrovsk station. Formally, this is still within the city limits, which explains the discrepancies in estimates."
The analyst noted that DeepState continues to designate part of the territory as a "gray zone" because it’s not a stable frontline, but rather fragmented control and sporadic fighting on the outskirts. Therefore, he added, ISW’s conclusion about full control can be considered largely formal: while most of the city has been captured, certain areas within the administrative boundaries remain a contact zone. "Ukrainian forces also maintain a separate presence in the Myrnohrad area—behind the Central mine, in industrial and private buildings," the source added. However, according to the expert, further retention of these positions is difficult, given Russia’s overall control over most of the agglomeration.
When asked why the fighting continued if the city had lost its significance, Kovalenko said: "Pokrovsk lost its operational and tactical significance back in 2023–2024. If a similar breakthrough had occurred in 2022, the consequences could have been catastrophic—primarily in terms of logistics and the further advance of Russian troops." However, the expert noted, the prolonged "slippage" of the Russian army led to the fact that during this time Ukraine: created echeloned defensive lines to the north of the city; diversified logistics routes; reoriented supplies to other channels. "As a result, Pokrovsk, like Mirnohrad, began to perform a different function—the function of exhausting the enemy," he added.
The expert emphasizes that defending every populated area is a means of slowing down and wearing down the enemy. The fact that Russia, despite possessing significant military potential, has failed to capture the entire Donetsk region or a single active regional center (with the exception of Kherson, which was temporarily held and subsequently abandoned) during the four-year war demonstrates the effectiveness of attrition tactics.
After establishing control over Pokrovsk, there was no noticeable acceleration in the advance—and, according to Kovalenko, there will be none: “Beyond the city, there are new lines of defense, including the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk bridgehead—one of the most fortified areas on the entire front line.”
"The cost of the battle for Pokrovsk was high. In particular, the Russian Federation’s 51st Combined Arms Army was forced to reinforce its forces with units from other directions, including the redeployment of the 155th Separate Marine Brigade from the Kursk sector, to compensate for losses and setbacks. Under these conditions, further advancement is only possible at a slow pace and with high casualties," the expert asserts.
According to Kovalenko, Russian troops are increasingly using simplified assault tactics—on foot, on motorcycles, and in light vehicles—which also indicates the depletion of their resources.
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