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The serious fuel shortage in Russia is accelerating discontent among citizens. Now the predictions are that if the situation continues like this, social unrest in Russia will be inevitable. This is also confirmed by expert circles. It is also noted that Ukraine’s new tactics are also calculated to increase social discontent in Russia. Recall, Ukraine has dramatically increased the number of attacks launched against Russian oil refineries in recent months, sparking fuel shortages and price rises in some parts of the country. Drone strikes on refineries – some deep inside Russia – soared in August and remained high in September, an analysis of Russian media reports and verified footage showed.
Some 21 of the country’s 38 large refineries – where crude oil is converted into useable fuel like petrol and diesel – have been hit since January, with successful attacks already 48% higher than the whole of 2024.
Between 20 March and 30 June 2025, using open sources and satellite imagery, the OSINT community CyberBoroshno recorded 19 confirmed hits on defence plants, five on military facilities, and none on energy infrastructure. For a long time Ukraine showed restraint and stuck to what had been agreed, refraining from striking energy infrastructure. However, after relentless Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power facilities in which Ukrainian civilians lost their lives, unilateral restraint no longer made sense, and drone operators began to strike Russian oil refineries and pipelines again. In August and September 2025, CyberBoroshno was able to confirm 30 attacks on energy facilities on Russian territory. Of these, 23 were successful, 2 unsuccessful and 5 inconclusive. The strikes on Russia’s oil refining infrastructure follow a clear and consistent logic. Importantly, many of the strikes now target essential equipment, rather than oil tanks as in the previous campaign, according to Ukrainskaya Pravda.
It also appears that the predominant Ukrainian strike weapon, judging by the videos posted at least, is now the FP-1 drone from Firepoint. The legendary Liutyi UAVs still fly, but they are seen less often.
Many hits have proved effective and have disrupted production and logistics, but it’s still too early to draw conclusions.
To turn these isolated successes into a steady strategic outcome, a systematic approach is required: consistent verification of every case and, in parallel, improvements in the capacity, accuracy and sustainability of strikes. Equally importantly, actions must be coordinated with diplomatic and economic steps in order to maximise pressure on the Russians.
What can be said at this moment in time? Fuel shortages on the consumer market have become a problem across Russia. CyberBoroshno analysed Russian open sources and documented reports of fuel supply problems in 33 of Russia’s 83 constituent entities. We have marked them on a map, Ukrainskaya Pravda says.
As Ekonomichna Pravda has explained, Ukraine’s strikes on refineries are occurring during the season of peak fuel consumption. Clearly the defence forces chose just the right time to conduct the campaign.
But it would be naive to think that the fuel situation will have any effect on the availability of diesel for Russian troops. Russian tanks will obviously be prioritised for refuelling, and the shortages will mostly affect civilians and exporters.
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