Sweden has warned Denmark that Russia could potentially seize one of the islands in the Baltic Sea to test NATO’s response.
However, according to the Danish news outlet DR, Danish Chief of Defense Michael Huldgaard has no information regarding such plans by Moscow.
There are thousands of islands in the Baltic Sea—ranging from small to large—and this region could become a “hotspot” in the context of potential Russian actions.
Swedish Chief of Defense Michael Claesson considers it entirely possible that Russia could theoretically decide at any time to seize one of the islands to test NATO’s unity.
“I think the alliance can be challenged by seizing almost anything. It doesn’t have to be anything big. It’s more about a show of force and testing the political reaction,” Michael Claesson stated.
The Danish Military Intelligence Service’s threat report notes that the Baltic region is the area where the risk of Russia using military force against NATO is highest.
At the same time, Danish Chief of Defense Michael Huldgaard assesses the situation more cautiously.
“I am not aware of any Russian plans for such a scenario. For us, the priority is cooperation within national and collective frameworks to demonstrate our readiness. We are capable of defending both Denmark and NATO as a whole, and that is precisely the strategic message we are sending to the world,” he said.
If NATO is unable to respond decisively even to a limited invasion, this will signal to both individual member states and the Alliance as a whole a lack of capability or unity for collective action.
According to Claesson’s assessment, direct war between Russia and NATO remains unlikely, as Moscow realizes the inevitability of defeat in a conventional military confrontation.
Instead, a gradual escalation using hybrid tactics—actions designed to remain below the formal threshold of war while simultaneously creating a tangible strategic effect—is far more likely.
The temporary occupation of a small territory—in the Baltic region or on a single island—fits perfectly into this logic. Such a move could be presented as a “symbolic show of force,” followed by a pause to assess the reaction of NATO governments and armed forces.
