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By mid‑2025, Moscow has repeatedly paused departures at major airports during large incoming drone waves, a pattern seen July 18, Aug 26 and again Sept 1, when Russia said 159 drones entered its airspace in a single night. These multi‑axis attacks, paired with electronic‑warfare side‑effects that can disrupt navigation and comms, are forcing the capital into a new defensive rhythm: short‑notice airspace holds, rolling alarms, and rapid shifts of air‑defense batteries.
The broader trend predates summer: Ukraine has claimed shootdowns of high‑value Russian aircraft since early 2024—two A‑50U airborne early‑warning planes, a Tu‑22M3 bomber, plus multiple Su‑34/35 losses—constricting Russia’s airborne reconnaissance and strike windows. June 7, 2025 brought another claim: a Su‑35 downed near Kursk. While Russia disputes some details, these episodes show an increasingly costly air picture.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s networked approach is hardening: Sweden’s ASC‑890 (Erieye) AWACS donation, F‑16 integration over Link‑16, and added Patriot coverage, while indigenous long‑range systems (e.g., Palianytsia “drone‑missile”; Flamingo family by Fire Point) expand the reach of deep strikes. As Europe funds via NATO’s PURL and the U.S. keeps key connectivity in play (Starlink), Russia’s air ops around the capital face shorter flight profiles, denser defenses—and fewer “safe” corridors.
