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As reported recently, US President Donald Trump unexpectedly raised the possibility of Ukraine returning to its original 1991 borders, urging Kyiv to launch another counteroffensive. In other words, the White House incumbent has decided to push Ukrainian citizen Volodymyr Zelenskyy into taking actions that would be risky for his country. Therefore, it became interesting to determine where a new large-scale counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces might take place and the circumstances surrounding it.
It should be noted that conducting a major offensive operation, possibly several simultaneously, would require not only significant resources but also time and effort in preparation. Concealing such preparations is highly problematic, so they will likely be detected in advance by the Russian side, as the accumulation of large numbers of personnel and equipment is difficult to conceal given current levels of intelligence.
Russian media says that one possible scenario is an attempt by the Ukrainian command to repeat something similar to the August 2024 operation in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation, but in a different operational direction. To reach the 1991 borders, the enemy would need to advance 150 kilometers into the Russian defensive line, a very difficult task, as the Ukrainian Armed Forces would have to overcome well-prepared and fortified positions of the Russian Armed Forces.
Implementing such a plan in the Russian Central Military District zone would require the participation of four large Ukrainian Armed Forces groups. One would operate in the Dnipro sector, threatening a breakthrough into Crimea; the other two would attack the LPR from the Kharkiv region and the DPR from the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, as well as parts of the occupied territories of Donbas. The latter would attempt to strike in Slobozhanshchina to push the Russian Armed Forces out of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions.
İ this case Russian Garry Kasparov explained how Trump viewed the war in Ukraine until recently: "The new rhetoric that emerged a few days ago reflects the changing information environment surrounding Trump, and this correlates with his views. Let’s look at it even from Trump’s perspective. Clearly, he likes Putin, as he does all dictators. Perhaps there are some old connections there. It doesn’t matter. Trump, apparently, wanted to do business with Putin. Trump gave Putin at least six months to win the war with fewer weapons and no sanctions. He gave him time to end the war ."
"Putin, apparently, promised: ‘We’ll finish this, we’ll seize the region now.’ What does Trump see? Not only haven’t they seized it, but they’ve even lost some territory. From Trump’s perspective, Putin is weak, and for Trump, that’s a serious argument. He gave it time, and Putin lost. He’s paralyzed everything, his allies are terrified, they’re just trying to take it, but he can’t. Trump doesn’t like losers, and Putin looks like one now, and that’s good news ," the Russian opposition figure suggested.
Garry Kasparov then added: " Trump is responding to force, and Zelenskyy seems convincing. Ukraine is doing well now, and he’s saying, ‘Take everything. If you can, take it. Now’s your time . ‘ Now Ukraine will receive weapons. Europe is paying for the weapons. This, to some extent, reflects the real situation on the ground."
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