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Due to the pace of Russia’s advances on the Ukrainian frontline—at the cost of roughly a million casualties and just 1.45% of the territory seized in three years—the Kremlin has repeatedly tried to push for Ukraine to surrender territory without a fight. It seeks full, de jure control over Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions, United24Media says. Now things have turned out that Russia is suffering more losses here, and the number of Russians taken prisoner is increasing.
The Donetsk region has become the most fortified territory in Europe: a “fortress belt” where Russian generals send hundreds of thousands of soldiers to gain only a few square kilometers in what they themselves cynically call the “meat-grinder.” Here they are also being captured en masse.
Because Russia cannot retake the territory by force without reaching the limits of its financial and manpower capacity, it is now trying to obtain it through diplomacy—pressuring Ukraine and its partners to “give” the region to Russia in exchange for “peace.”
By seeking to claim the land through negotiations, the Kremlin has attempted to acquire what it failed to conquer at immense military cost since 2014. Indeed, Ukraine has invested a lot. Its latest fortifications along the frontline—from south to north, in the Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Kharkiv regions—appear far better adapted to drone-driven warfare that has evolved since 2023, as well as to the current state of the Russian army, which seems weakened and less capable of major offensive operations. The current phase of the war is defined by FPV drones saturating the sky since summer 2023—and the trend keeps growing. Today, inside “kill zones,” when a drone detects a target in the open, it has more than an 80% chance of hitting it. These drones are also cheaper than artillery munitions. In 2022, Russian and Ukrainian forces designed fortifications according to Soviet doctrine. The International Center for Defense and Security, a military think tank based in Estonia, describes it as a “concentration of forces and materiel in large strongholds, heavily fortified against the primary threats of massed artillery fire and major infantry assaults supported by armored vehicles.”
But drones made trenches one of the least safe places on the battlefield. By 2023–2024, the kill zone expanded. “A five- to ten-kilometer-deep ‘kill zone’ along the contact line in which conventional fortifications—wide trenches, large platoon- or company-sized dugouts, and concentrated strongpoints—became highly vulnerable and increasingly unusable,” ICDS said.
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