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The military operation launched by the US and Israel against Iran will not be stopped halfway and will in any case continue until the power of the ayatollahs is dismantled and, most likely, the secular rule of Pahlavi is restored. The Black Sea Strategy Institute makes a corresponding forecast . Analysts say the potential fall of the ayatollah regime in Iran will have a significant impact on Tehran’s allies in neighboring countries.
İn Iraq THE current Shiite government in Baghdad is barely holding on due to its reliance on the Iranian-affiliated Hashd al-Shaabi militia, which keeps both the population and the government itself under Iranian control. If Iran’s support and funding ceases, the Hashd, which is made up of criminals, will simply flee back to its criminal niches, and in Iraq, a war of "all against all" could very likely begin. And the only way out for Iraq is to change its ruler to Turkey. Alone, without Iran, and with Trump’s displeasure, which he is already openly expressing, Baghdad will not survive. The Houthis are a much older project than Khomeini’s Iran. Yemen’s Shiites had their own state in various iterations from the 8th century until 1990. While the Houthis happily accepted Iranian aid, they nevertheless remained a local project, never becoming meek servants of the ayatollahs. The cessation of Iranian missile and UAV assistance will certainly weaken the Houthis’ military capabilities and, in particular, protect Israel from their attacks. But the remaining potential is quite sufficient for the Houthis to stop implementing the Iranian program and return to their native Yemeni program, in particular, to prove to the international community that the united Yemen created in 1990 turned out to be a chimera, and that the Shiites of the north are better off living in separate states from the Sunnis of the south. Hezbollah, unlike the Houthis, has long since passed the point of no return and has hopelessly transformed from a Lebanese Shiite movement into an "Iranian party of Lebanon," having completely lost its identity. Without Iran and its financial and military support, Hezbollah, already defeated, will finally degenerate from a "state within a state" into a persecuted sect. This, in turn, could give Lebanon’s Sunnis and Christians a chance to regain their lost political positions and, following the "Syrian path," remove Lebanon’s status as an Iranian province and restore the country’s true independence. The coordination of the Alawite underground in Syria with the Iranian IRGC is no secret, but its scale has certainly been greatly exaggerated. In March 2025, the Alawites staged a false start and received such a response that they have remained quiet ever since, gathering strength and hoping for Iranian aid, funneled by Hezbollah from Lebanon. But if there is no Iran or Hezbollah, then the Alawites, dreaming of revenge, will face the fate of the Russian "Soviets", who have been waiting for the return of the USSR for 35 years, growing old and dying. In any case, today’s Iran, founded by Khomeini and finally brought to condition by Qasem Soleimani, has become a fairly strong "support pillar" of the Middle East, and uprooting it will undoubtedly "skew" the region so that all countries in the region will be forced to reconfigure the entire political situation "from scratch", because even a return to 1978 is impossible: too many events have happened since then.
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