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Hryvnia Strengthens Slightly as War Battered Exports Struggle

(Kyiv) – The National Bank of Ukraine has strengthened the official exchange rate of the hryvnia, setting it at 41.59 UAH to the US dollar on 29 May 2025, an improvement of 8 kopecks from the previous day. The rate is equivalent to approximately £0.0213 to the dollar. This modest gain comes against the backdrop of a struggling export sector heavily impacted by war and the destruction of key infrastructure.

The euro is now set at 47.07 UAH (around £0.0241), and the Polish zloty at 11.09 UAH (around £0.0057). On the interbank market, the US dollar is trading between 41.53 and 41.57 UAH, while the euro moves between 46.96 and 46.99 UAH. Exchange offices and commercial banks are offering slightly varied rates, with the dollar fluctuating between 41.30 and 41.80 UAH.

However, these figures provide little comfort to Ukraine’s battered economy. According to Deputy Minister of Economy and Trade Representative Taras Kachka, the country’s exports have significantly declined, particularly due to the collapse of the metallurgical sector. He noted that Ukraine has lost nearly three quarters of its metallurgical capacity, primarily due to the physical destruction of factories and production sites caused by Russia’s full scale invasion.

This damage, Kachka emphasised, is not a result of business mismanagement or poor planning, but rather due to deliberate military attacks. “This is not a failed strategy. It is the physical destruction of enterprises,” he stated at the “Export in Wartime: Challenges and Opportunities” conference in Kyiv.

Ukraine’s economy, long reliant on metallurgical and agricultural exports, is now facing a systemic crisis, with production falling and export volumes reduced both in financial and physical terms. International financial institutions have already reacted. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) recently downgraded Ukraine’s 2025 GDP growth forecast from 3.5 percent to 3.3 percent. The 2026 forecast remains unchanged at 5 percent, but only on the assumption that a ceasefire will be reached.

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