(Murmansk Oblast) – The Russian military has moved a significant portion of its strategic bomber fleet to the Olenya airfield in the far north of Russia, raising new questions about the Kremlin’s tactics in its ongoing war against Ukraine. Satellite imagery confirmed that as of 26 May 2025, 40 Tu-22M3 bombers and 11 Tu-95MS aircraft, representing around 20 percent of Russia’s fleet of that type, had been relocated to the Arctic base. The move appears to be a calculated attempt to confuse Ukrainian and allied intelligence services.
Defence Express analysts note that Russia’s pattern of shifting aircraft between airfields like Olenya, Belaya in Siberia, and Engels suggests deliberate obfuscation. For instance, just two weeks prior, 42 Tu-22M3s were observed at Belaya. Given that Russia reportedly operates no more than 60 Tu-22M3s in total, the redeployment of roughly two thirds of the fleet in such a short time reveals how strained and desperate Russian planning has become.
On the day of a new large missile strike against Ukraine, only three out of the 11 Tu-95MS stationed at Olenya were used in the attack. This points to a likely gap between aircraft that are present and those actually operational, further underlining the challenges facing Russian strategic aviation.
Meanwhile, changes at Engels airbase reflect a similar pattern. As of 25 May, six Tu-95MS, three Tu-160s and four Su-34s were present, but the next day only three Tu-95MS, three Tu-160s and two Su-34s remained. That same day, seven Tu-95MSs returned to Engels following strikes on Ukraine, and another was sent to Olenya.
Experts believe these shifts are an attempt to prevent foreign intelligence from identifying take-off points for missile attacks in real time. However, such manoeuvres come at the cost of exhausting the already limited service lives of the Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, and Tu-160 aircraft.
Despite this activity, actual use of strategic bombers to hit Ukraine remains far more limited than during the earlier years of the invasion. Analysts suggest that Russia’s increasingly desperate use of deception and wear on its aircraft shows a decline in effective combat capability and sustainability.
