Oil prices edged higher on Monday morning after United States President Donald Trump announced an extension to trade negotiations with the European Union until 9 July. The move eased investor fears over the possibility of sharp tariffs on EU goods, which could have weighed heavily on global economic growth and fuel demand.
As of 07:33 Kyiv time, Brent crude futures increased by 26 US cents, or 0.4 percent, to 65.04 US dollars per barrel (approximately £51.15). Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by 24 US cents, or 0.39 percent, to 61.77 US dollars per barrel (about £48.58). The modest gains followed a 0.5 percent rise in both Brent and WTI prices on Friday.
Market analyst Tony Sycamore from IG described the extension as a “nice boost” for crude oil and US stock futures. Trump’s decision came after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen requested more time for EU negotiators to reach an agreement, leading Trump to delay a proposed 50 percent duty on trade with the EU.
Energy prices were further supported by news that nuclear talks between the US and Iran have made only limited progress. This reduced expectations of a swift return of Iranian oil to global markets. Ahead of the US Memorial Day weekend, American buyers closed positions, adding to short term price support.
In addition, US oil production continues to face supply constraints. According to energy services firm Baker Hughes, the number of active US oil rigs fell by 8 last week, bringing the total to 465 — the lowest level since November 2021. This signals that producers remain cautious amid still uncertain oil price levels.
Despite this, gains were capped by expectations surrounding the upcoming meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC Plus. The group may decide to increase output by another 411,000 barrels per day in July. Suvro Sarkar, a senior energy analyst at DBS Bank, noted that oil markets remain under pressure from OPEC Plus’s ramped-up production strategy and the risk of a “mini oil price war.”
Reports from earlier this month indicated that OPEC Plus had already increased production targets by one million barrels per day for April, May, and June. It is now considering cancelling part of its voluntary production cuts, currently totalling 2.2 million barrels per day, by the end of October.
Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, wrote in a note to clients that OPEC Plus’s decisions are aimed at ensuring the market remains well supplied in the second half of 2025.
With the market watching closely, oil prices could face continued volatility depending on upcoming decisions from OPEC Plus and whether Trump keeps his word on trade tariffs or reverts to his unpredictable playbook.
