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Recent weeks have seen a sharp rise in Russian battlefield deaths in Ukraine, making it difficult for the Kremlin to replenish the troops without a new wave of mobilization, Bloomberg reported on Friday. The publication quoted Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov as saying that Ukrainian troops killed 35,000 Russian soldiers in December, with Kyiv aiming to push that figure to 50,000 per month by the summer. This could be about twice the monthly average NATO has estimated for 2025. According to estimates of European governments, the increased death toll in the Russian army is linked to a more effective Ukrainian drone warfare, as the balance between wounded and killed has shifted toward fatalities. With deaths now matching Russia’s current recruitment capacity, officials said sustained losses at this level would be difficult to offset without a broader mobilization. President Vladimir Putin, however, is seen as unlikely to pursue mobilization, given its deep unpopularity in the country. He has avoided repeating the September 2022 draft of 300,000 reservists, which sparked a mass departure of Russians abroad and fueled public backlash against the war. European evaluations challenge Moscow’s narrative that Russia’s battlefield gains makes its ultimate victory unavoidable. According to people familiar with those assessments, continued Russian losses could erode Vladimir Putin’s leverage in negotiations in the months ahead. Control of territory has become the focal point of US-mediated discussions, with Russia maintaining its demand that Ukraine surrender the entire eastern industrial Donbas region, including Donetsk and Luhansk. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has dismissed that proposal, while emphasizing US security guarantees intended to deter any renewed aggression following a ceasefire. Negotiations in the United Arab Emirates, including another in-person meeting between Russian and Ukrainian representatives, are expected to resume this weekend. Despite Russia’s sustained missile and drone strikes that have severely damaged Ukraine’s energy grid and left large parts of the country without heat or power during winter, Moscow’s ground forces have achieved only limited gains. To sustain manpower levels, Russia has leaned on hefty enlistment bonuses and elevated pay to entice men into military contracts, claiming those incentives have been enough to meet its annual recruitment goals. It should be noted that the total number of Russian soldiers who have been killed, injured or gone missing since the beginning of the full-fledged invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has reached over 1.2 million.
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