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The administration of President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva frequently touts how it has sharply slowed deforestation in the Amazon, and indeed it has. When the next official annual numbers are released in October, the deforestation rate is expected to be the lowest since 2012.
According to Associated Press despite gains in keeping forest standing, however, many other threats, ranging from climate change to potential legislation on the horizon, are putting the forest at risk.
Forest degradation, driven by wildfires, logging and drought, affects about 40% of the Amazon and has outpaced clear-cutting in recent years.
All of this could be exacerbated in 2026 with a strong El Nino, a cyclic warming of the equatorial Pacific, which causes higher temperatures and drier weather in the rainforest, conditions that worsen wildfires.
While the Amazon is still a carbon sink, that is, it absorbs a vast amount of planet-warming carbon dioxide, it could reach a tipping point beyond which it cannot recover. At that stage, the forest could emit more CO2 than it absorbs.
A 2024 study led by Bernardo Flores and published in Nature estimated that by 2050, between 10% and 47% of the Amazon could be pushed into conditions capable of triggering such a critical shift.
The official annual deforestation rate covers the period from August of the previous year to July of the current year. Preliminary data based on DETER, Brazil’s official satellite-based system that provides real-time alerts, show that both deforestation and forest degradation have significantly declined since last year.
However, degradation continues to outpace deforestation. From August 2025 through April 2026, deforestation alerts covered nearly 1,700 square kilometers, while degradation affected about 4,420 square kilometers.
The DETER system provides environmental authorities with daily alerts of ongoing deforestation — complete clear-cutting – and degradation, which are areas affected by human activity where soil is exposed but the forest has not yet been fully lost.
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