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Another 70,000 soldiers to desert from Russian army; the army is heading toward crisis

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Desertion rates in the Russian occupation army have doubled over the past year, according to Agency.News, citing open source intelligence (OSINT) analysts.
According to the Ukrainian OSINT project Frontelligence Insight, if the current rate of desertion continues, at least 70,000 people—that is, one in ten occupiers—will flee Russian units by the end of the year.
Analysts examined tens of thousands of personal files of Russian military personnel collected by the Ukrainian project "I Want to Live," as well as internal documents obtained from several Russian units at the brigade, division, and army levels. One of these documents contains a list of 13,800 deserters, complete with names and unit numbers, for the period from 2022 to July 2025. This document clearly shows a steady increase in desertion cases throughout 2024 and 2025. While the document records 3,200 desertion cases for the entire year of 2024, in 2025 alone, the number rises to 3,400.
And this is just one of many documents reviewed. Others confirm this trend. Some reports report an even more dramatic increase in the number of fugitives—up to six times in a year and a half.
Analysts note that in the early years of the war, Russian soldiers mostly fled from military bases in the rear, but in 2025, the trend changed dramatically, and now most defectors are from the front lines or hospitals.
Researchers also note that the Russian army systematically uses extrajudicial punishments in an attempt to combat desertion. This includes torture, mock executions, and actual reprisals.
According to analysts, the number of desertions has not yet reached a level that would qualify as a crisis. However, the problem is certainly serious, given the methods the Russian army is trying to address it. The report’s authors do not rule out the possibility that the situation could escalate into a serious rift within the army.
The average age of deserters is 37 years old, writes Frontelligence Insight. People aged 35-44 years leave the place of service most often, followed by the group of 25-34-year-olds. Probably, this reflects the general structure of the Russian army, according to the authors of the study. Extrajudicial punishments are used to combat desertion, the study says. In some divisions, torture is used, executions are staged and real massacres are arranged, writes Frontelligence Insight. The effectiveness of measures to combat desertion is uneven, some parts demonstrate high rates of return of deserters. Internal documents of the 144th separate motorized rifle brigade show that from March 2022 to March 2025, more than 1.1 thousand deserters were detained and returned, 256 remained wanted. Despite this, the number of escapes continues to grow. The number of cases of desertion has not yet reached the crisis level, according to the authors of the study. But the surge in the number of these cases, despite the risk of severe punishment up to extrajudicial executions, indicates a deep problem. The authors admit that it may even develop into a serious split within the army.
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