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Russian troops have adopted a new strategy for capturing cities. This can be seen in the example of Pokrovsk , which the Russians are currently attempting to capture.
Georges Barros, a leading analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), wrote about this in an article for The Washington Post, analyzing the battle for this city. He noted that although the occupation of Pokrovsk will bring Russia minor tactical advantages, the campaign to capture the city demonstrates that Russian troops are learning and adapting.
"If this cannot be stopped, Ukraine could face serious problems in the near and medium term," the author of the article emphasized.
"The Kremlin is exaggerating the importance of the capture of Pokrovsk to portray Russia’s advance on the battlefield as inevitable. This sense of inevitability is shared by some members of US President Donald Trump’s negotiating team," the analyst noted. He believes that after the occupation of Avdiivka, the capture of Pokrovsk became a priority for the Russian military command, despite the fact that over the past two years, the occupiers had only advanced 40 kilometers from Avdiivka to Pokrovsk, a move Russia had paid a heavy price for. The analyst noted that from the beginning of the Avdiivka offensive in October 2023 until the summer of 2024, Russian forces lost armored vehicles and tanks in the Pokrovsk area equal to at least five divisions—more than 1,000 armored vehicles and over 500 tanks. After this, the Russians changed tactics, abandoning mechanized assaults and relying on infiltration by small assault groups. This approach allowed the enemy to continue its advance literally on foot, albeit with heavy losses. For example, in October 2025, near Pokrovsk, Russian forces captured only about 30 square kilometers, but lost up to 25,000 troops.
Barros believes that the capture of Pokrovsk is unlikely to be a breakthrough for the Russians, as the forces stationed there lack the capacity to advance quickly and seize territory. Furthermore, due to heavy losses, the occupiers lack the forces for a large-scale breakthrough.
But at the same time, as Barros noted, the Russians demonstrated a new operational plan for capturing Ukrainian cities: first, drones are used to destroy the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ logistics lines, then infantry assault and sabotage groups are sent in.
"Russia’s ability to weaken Ukrainian defenders on the battlefield with medium-range strikes is a worrying development," the analyst said.
Barros noted that the defense of the well-fortified Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkovka, and Konstantinovka would be significantly hampered if the Russians were able to leave Ukraine without the railways and highways necessary to supply these strongholds. Barros warned that Russia is already trying to use the Pokrovsk experience and cited the example of Ukraine cutting off rail service to Kramatorsk in November, likely due to a threat from Russian drones.
"Ukraine must find a way to counter this scheme, so it needs to develop effective counter-drone methods. In particular, by developing means of engaging targets 60-100 km from the front," the analyst opined.
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