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There is no point in even comparing the financial capabilities of Russia and the West, so it is obvious who will win in the arms race, said Ukrainian military expert Petr Chernik. The military expert emphasized that the fall of Putin’s Russia will most likely be caused by the arms race , and not just a drop in oil prices, as was the case with the Soviet Union.
A military expert clearly demonstrated Russia’s weakness against the backdrop of the collective West: " Where is the moment here that will have a historical aspect in terms of the arms race? Let’s go back a little into the past. The Soviet Union suffered a global collapse under two circumstances. We have analyzed energy resources a thousand times (low oil prices), but we have never analyzed and now for the first time we will analyze the arms race. The Soviet Union spent almost 15% of its GDP on this arms race, despite the fact that it was a large power, 250 million people, the second superpower, and it could not withstand this arms race."
Petr Chernik expressed his opinion on what will lead to the collapse of Russia: "How, with such large flywheels, will Russia with its GDP of 2.5 trillion dollars withstand competition with a monster (the combined GDP of the USA and Europe is 50 trillion dollars)? Putin once reflected that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a geopolitical catastrophe of historical order, and we lost 49% of our heavy industry. Now, when they produce almost nothing of their own, how can we withstand this competition? Here is a historical aspect that confirms that this flywheel will sooner or later finish off the bear ."
As long as Russia has a freely convertible currency, it can exist and fight, said Petr Chernik. If Western countries stop buying Russian products, this will lead to the collapse of the Russian economy and the end of the war in Ukraine.
"Unfortunately, there is some unpleasant news for us. By the end of 2024, Poland alone bought more than 400 million euros worth of mineral fertilizers from the Russians. That’s a lot, a lot. They continue to sell leguminous crops. By the way, they are currently setting historical records. They have a large zone of black soil where Kuban is, and they sell a lot of all this, not to mention timber, oil, aluminum, non-ferrous metals, and so on. The world buys all of this ," the military expert said.
At the same time, Petr Chernik emphasized: "The countries that buy all this from Russia, produce some products and sell them to the USA. What is the logic? Raise tariffs to 500%, and that’s a lot, and then it becomes unprofitable. Those who do this will be forced to stop buying all this from the Russians. I’ve said this a thousand times, and if necessary, I’ll say it for the millionth time: as long as the Russians have freely convertible currency, they exist until that moment. If there is no freely convertible currency, it’s the end for them ."
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