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Internet blockages in Russia are not actually related to the war against Ukraine. This opinion was voiced on the RTVI channel. Prominent Russian journalist and expert Maxim Shevchenko, who has ties to Russian intelligence agencies, stated that internet restrictions and the blocking of the Telegram messenger are a manifestation of an internal struggle between key influence groups within the Kremlin. According to him, this is a confrontation between the FSB, the presidential administration, the Ministry of Defense, and the Foreign Intelligence Service or SVR amid preparations for the transition of power. He made the statement in response to an interviewer’s question about whether the government would decide to "roll back" all the restrictions introduced recently after the Russian-Ukrainian war is over. Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy offered a different perspective on the situation. He linked the tightening of internet restrictions in Russia to preparations for a new wave of mobilization and escalation of military action. He argued that the blocking measures were necessary in the event of a threat of protests. Within the Russian leadership, the topic of succession dominates all others. Emerging crises are perceived not as existential threats but as background noise accompanying the transfer of power. The current elite configuration resembles the late-Soviet Politburo, already preparing for a formal transition. The transition is expected to bring major reshuffles across all security and government institutions. Despite regular statements about integrating “veterans of the war against Ukraine” into the elite, such promotions are unlikely at the federal level, though possible regionally in areas with high concentrations of so-called Z-patriots. Vladimir Putin is not expected to disappear from politics entirely.
He will likely assume the post of Chairman of the Constitutional Court, allowing him to retain supervisory and symbolic authority as the regime’s “watchdog.” This mirrors the controlled retirement models of late Soviet leaders, maintaining influence while avoiding direct responsibility. The Russian political system is built around personalistic rule — the concentration of power in Vladimir Putin’s hands and a narrow circle of loyal elites. A sudden, uncontrolled change of leadership would risk internal fragmentation, elite competition, and possibly social unrest. Putin’s legitimacy originally rested on stability and national revival. As the war in Ukraine and sanctions erode that narrative, the Kremlin needs a new legitimacy formula.
The transit allows for a symbolic renewal of the regime — presenting a new figure or configuration while keeping real control intact. The Kremlin’s push for a transit of power is not about democratization but regime preservation. It’s a pre-emptive stabilization mechanism—to secure immunity for the ruling elite, preserve internal order, and project continuity to both domestic and international audiences. Despite the expected reshuffles within the Russian leadership, neither the country’s foreign policy direction nor its ideological foundations will change. The most influential figures from Vladimir Putin’s inner circle will remain in power, ensuring the preservation of the Soviet-style worldview that has guided Moscow’s strategic decisions for decades. These elites, formed during the Cold War, continue to view international relations through the prism of geopolitical confrontation with the West, perceiving global politics as a zero-sum struggle for influence and survival. Consequently, even after a formal transfer of authority, Russia’s political behavior will likely remain rooted in imperial nostalgia, security paranoia, and systemic hostility toward liberal democracies. This continuity means that any post-Putin era will not signal genuine reform or democratization but rather a controlled adaptation of authoritarian rule, designed to preserve elite privileges and sustain Moscow’s global revisionist agenda.
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