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Ukraine’s campaign of strikes against Russia’s air defense system, particularly in occupied Crimea, is yielding noticeable results. At least on the peninsula, Russia’s air defenses are showing signs of significant degradation, an open data analyst who goes by the pseudonym Athene Noctua reported on the social network X.
He noted that the Defense Forces have once again begun using Bayraktar drones to carry out strike missions, something that has not been seen for a long time due to counteraction from Russian air defenses.
Secondly, Ukraine has begun to target civilian radars, which also assist Russian air defenses but have so far been a low-priority target for the Defense Forces.
The third sign: Ukrainian strikes are being recorded further and further into Russian-controlled territory, including in regions of Russia itself adjacent to Crimea.
Athene Noctua notes that the Russian army has effectively lost its upper echelon of radio intelligence in this area, and the number of long-range SAMs such as the S-300 and S-400 is constantly decreasing. And although the Russians still have many medium-range SAMs such as the Buk, the situation for the aggressor has become significantly more difficult.
"A further deterioration of the Russian air defense could have very negative consequences for Russian troops in the south of Kherson region. If properly equipped with targeting pods, both the F-16 and Mirage 2000 could provide close air support of Ukrainian troops against the Russians in this area," the analyst writes. In this situation, transporting military equipment across the Crimean Bridge has become difficult. In some cases, the transported equipment is shot down right on the bridge.
Recall, for a month and a half now, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have been systematically working to destroy Russian air defense systems of various types, and this is yielding results. This opinion was expressed by military expert Andrey Kramarov on air on "Radio NV".
"According to independent analysts, more than 20 units of equipment were hit. These are BUK-1.2, TOR-1.2 anti-aircraft missile systems, both launchers and complete systems. But for us, the most significant thing is that out of this number, more than 10 units are various types of radar observation stations. All of this is being deliberately knocked out in the region, therefore, it facilitates the work of our aviation, in particular in the same Donetsk region. Which allows us to provide much more active support to our defenders from the sky in defense," Kramarov said.
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